Random Madness to Wrap your Head Around

No No. 1 seeds this year. And no No. 2 seeds either.

None of the four head coaches with teams in this year's Final Four graduated from Division I institutions. Jim Calhoun played DII at American International College. John Calipari transferred from UNC-Wilmington and played at DII Clarion. Brad Stevens went to DIII DePauw University where he was up for Academic All-America. Shaka Smart played at DIII Kenyon College.

Calhoun is 68 years old. Stevens and Smart are 67 years old, combined.

All of the teams have mascots with four legs.

According to kenpom.com, there is a 58% chance the Wildcats (ranked 4th) will beat the Huskies 70-68 (ranked 11th) ... The Bulldogs (37th) will beat the Rams (50th) 70-68 as well (55% chance).

The Massey Ratings have UConn 4th and Kentucky 5th. Drop to 23rd for Butler and 31st for VCU ... Masseyratings.com says Kentucky is predicted to win 71-69 against UConn (win probability 54%) ... Butler is predicted to win 70-69 against VCU (win probability 52%).

Kenpom.com lists VCU with the highest average experience of the Final Four teams at 2.17 (48th nationally). Butler = 2.02 (76th nationally); Kentucky = 1.16 (312th); UConn = .95 (332nd) ... there are 345 teams ranked ... Kansas was 82nd. Ohio St. was 220th. The tournament team with the most experience was Wofford, ranked 2nd at 2.71.

In possession usage rate, three seniors (point guard Joey Rodriguez, forward Jamie Skeen, and wing Brandon Rozzell) lead the way for VCU. Butler uses junior guard Shelvin Mack as its go-to guy and senior forward Matt Howard as a significant contributor ... Kentucky's freshman big Terrence Jones is its go-to while frosh point guard sensation Brandon Knight leads as a major contributor. UConn's junior combo guard Kemba Walker is the go-to for the Huskies and freshman guard Shabazz Napier is a significant contributor.

VCU wants to set the pace against Butler. The Rams play with the highest tempo of the four and do better with speed. They need to score 70-plus points to win. Butler, on the other hand, doesn't like teams to get that much. Of its nine regular season losses, seven of them occurred when the other team scored 69 or more points.

Kentucky can play fast, too. And it is the best shooting team and best defensive team of the four (effective field goal percentage on offense = 52.7 ... eFG% defense = 44.2).

All four have stood out in full court conversion opportunities and half court execution, with VCU being the most impressive. A team that is so good playing fast isn't always spectacular in the half court (e.g., the Washington Huskies, according to Kenny Smith). The Rams, though, have been able to speed it up and score off makes, misses, and steals AND they can be patient with their sets. They set screens, they enter to the post, they cut hard, and they share the ball. Watch for a spin and immediate backdoor cut with the shot clock winding down ... or a back-to-back pick-and-roll to get off a shot opportunity.

Players to watch:

Hard hat, lunch bucket = Matt Howard

Heat check = Brandon Rozzell

Cool calm = Brandon Knight (and a 4.3 high school GPA to boot)

Game time = Kemba Walker in one game, Shelvin Mack in the other

Calhoun on Walker:

“Right now he's as good of a player in the country, midrange jump shot, he can make threes. To me he's the most valuable player in the United States,” Calhoun said. “So when I recruited him, I thought I was going to get a quick New York City point push guard, defender, all that type of thing. And he's evolved into even more than that.”

Stevens on Mack:

"You have to tell him to take days off," the coach said Monday. "Here is how hard he works and how important I think it is: If we have a time limit on an open practice, we'll stop early so he can get his shots up individually because I know how much it means to him."

Last year, it was all "all mental" for the Kansas Jayhawks. Looks like it was this year, too ... mainly because VCU drained them with everything it had in its own tank.

What does it take to make it this far?

Butler has shown what experience can do. And belief stemming from a team's ability to manage adversity during the season.

Stevens speaks:

“I think the teams that play the best basketball in the tournament are the teams that have a chance to win the tournament,” Stevens said. “It doesn't matter where you're from or how big your football program is or how much money is in your athletic department. It's about a group of kids coming together that five guys play on a court a once hopefully believing together that give you a great shot to compete.

“I think VCU and Butler played with a lot of pressure in January and February,” Stevens said. “When you get into the tournament, that pressure may flip a little bit. We're playing loose, we're playing for the first time in a lot of ways in a couple months where you've already been playing basically where you feel like you can't lose. So you're already used to that.

“So the NCAA tournament is a welcome. I think both teams have played really, really well because of that. Certainly they've got a lot more reasons than that. They are a loaded team that is really well‑coached.”

Calhoun said after the Final Four clinching win that he loves being around this year's team and has thoroughly enjoyed coaching it. His assistant Kevin Ollie says Calhoun is the toughest guy he knows.

Suite101 - "This year's Cinderella team, the No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams, is no fluke. They earned their berth in the Final Four with four impressive offensive performances and a lot of mental toughness."

Boston Herald - "Ambition is in ample supply at Butler. Likewise, physical and mental toughness."

Winning the Madness

Just enjoyed a full four days of the 2011 version of Division 1 March Madness. Great games for sure. And fabulous finishes, at least from a fan's perspective. Oh, the feeling of a winning end of a game-ending play ... or, yuck, the losing end of a play gone bad. The closing seconds of many games today, especially the close ones where plays were made for the best -- or not-made for the worst -- got me thinking: better offense or better defense?

(explorations and explanations utilize game box scores and kenpom.com for statistical references)

Sunday's examples:

1) With 5 seconds in the game, Washington was down just a point as it attempted to inbound the ball on its own baseline; however the pass was deflected and the ball stolen by North Carolina. UNC went on to sink two free throws and win by 3. The Huskies never got a great shot off because of the difficulty it had with the inbounds play.

FACTORS: UNC is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency. UW is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency but had 13 total turnovers, only attempted 7 free throws (made all 7), and shot a lower FG% than the Tar Heels (45.8% to 47%). Carolina shot 78% from the stripe but went to the line 23 times.

PRESSURE COOKER: Washington never got a great shot attempt in the end and had trouble scoring in its half court offense throughout, while Carolina did its thing on O and stepped up on D = defense created offense.

2) After being down 15 points midway through the second half, Michigan roared back to challenge Duke. Hardaway, Jr. scored 7 straight to bring the Wolverines to within 1 point with 1:18 left. A Blue Devils offensive rebound off a missed jumper led to an Irving jumper off the glass. Morris scored for Michigan then had to foul Smith with 9 ticks remaining. Smith made the first but missed the second. Morris then missed a running floater in the paint as time expired.

FACTORS: Duke's offensive efficiency is ranked 4th while its defensive efficiency is 3rd. Michigan's OE is 29th. DE is 33rd. Duke grabbed 9 offensive rebounds to Michigan's 4. Duke shot 72% from the free throw line while Michigan shot nearly 91 percent - but the Blue Devils went 25 times compared to 11.

PRESSURE COOKER: Both teams scored to keep it tight, then Duke missed free throw to pave a 3-point victory while Michigan missed good shot in lane -- non-contested -- to send it to OT = better offense sealed outcome, defense set the tone (Duke's perimeter D from the outset clamped down on Michigan's perimeter-minded attack ... the defensive tone was set but who was going to find openings?).

3) After a series of offensive boards and a made free throw by Williams with 2:01 left, Arizona was tied with Texas at 67 a piece. Brown hit a jumper for the Longhorns with 1:07 remaining and then prevented the Wildcats from scoring for another minute. Texas had possession on the baseline after a timeout, up 69-67. All the Longhorns had to do was inbound and take care of the ball, but they were called for 5 seconds. Arizona inbounded and found Williams off a pick and roll, he scored off a strong take and got fouled in the process. He made his free throw. Texas got a final layup off but it missed.

FACTORS: Arizona is ranked 18th in offensive efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage. Texas is 21st in OE and 4th in DE -- with a ranking of 5 on defensive eFG%. Zona shot 8 of 14 from 3-point range (57.1%) and had 2 more offensive boards than Texas.

PRESSURE COOKER: Wildcat defense stopped Longhorn inbounds play -> big time; Wildcat offense scored on Longhorn defense = defense allowed offense to be created.

4) With the scored knotted at 59 each, Syracuse had control on its own sideline but a miscue with its inbounds pass gave the ball away. Marquette regained possession and made the most of it by nailing a 3-pointer with 27 seconds left. The 'Cuse missed a 3 and Marquette sealed the game with four free throws.

FACTORS: Syracuse (no. 3 seed), statistically, is a better team, but on this night 11th seeded Marquette made 19 of 23 free throws (compared to 5 of 7 from the Orange). The Golden Eagles grabbed 11 O-boards to the Orange's 4. Syracuse had 18 turnovers. Marquette beat Syracuse earlier this season, too.

PRESSURE COOKER: Marquette got after it and created opportunities with rebounds and steals. Syracuse shot 55.3% from the field but other than that, it lost in every other offensive category = defense created offense ... and offense created offense for Marquette.

It's a hodgepodge of plays and stats and ranks. What is influential is how the climactic plays in three games, the ones that swayed the outcomes, came from suffocating defense that prevented great offense. UNC's deflection and steal. Arizona's forced 5-second count. Marquette's coerced backcourt violation. What is striking is all of these key turnovers that led to game-sealing points came from inbounds plays.

So, who from these winners has the best chance to win the whole tournament?

If data from the last six years is any indication, then none of them. Not Duke, North Carolina, Arizona or Marquette.

All signs point to THE Ohio State University. OSU is No. 1 in offensive efficiency. It has only lost two games this year, both in conference, and destroyed its two tourney opponents. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in eFG% and No. 7 in turnover percentage. Defensively, they are No. 6 in defensive efficiency and ranked No. 1 in opponent free throw rate. All of this means good luck stopping OSU and good luck scoring on them. Even attempting a foul shot is difficult.

Wisconsin is a slim possibility because of its No. 2 OE and No. 1 TO%.

Duke has an OE at No. 4 and a DE at No. 3.

San Diego State is No. 2 in DE and No. 7 in opponent eFG%.

The overall deciding factor: of the last six D1 NCAA champions, four of them finished the season ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency: Duke (2010), UNC (2009), Florida (2007), and UNC (2005).

The other two years of the previous six? The champion was 2nd in offensive efficiency: Kansas was No. 2 in in 2008; Florida was No. 2 in 2006.

Additionally, the 2008 Jayhawks, though not first in OE, were No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in eFG%.

The 2006 Gators were No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in eFG%.

The last seven NCAA winners finished with an overall rating -- offense and defense factors combined -- of at least No. 2 (FIVE were No. 1 overall).

Lesson: if you are not No. 1 in offensive efficiency, then you better be No. 2. And if you happen to be No. 2, you better have a ranking of at least 5 in another significant category to raise the overall stat. Otherwise, you'll lose ... if you are lucky enough to get to the championship. Of the runners-up in those six years, none had a ranking of 2 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Plenty of 3's and 4's though.

Taking 2004 and 2003 champs into consideration, it looks like the second half of the decade has gone to the teams at the very top of the rating system. Connecticut won in 2004 with an OE ranking of 4, a DE of 5, and an OBoard% of 3 ... so, three categories were a No. 5 ranking or better but none at Nos. 1 or 2.

Prior to that, Syracuse, who was No. 7 overall in kenpom.com rank, won in 2003 with OE at 11 and DE at 19. But the Orange had Carmelo Anthony -- and he must be considered an outlier ...

Bball Brief: Believe in Experience

Do you think the Cornell players ever saw this Pistol Pete video? Perhaps not, but they're busy compiling their own psychology of shooting clips.

They certainly have the conceptualization, concentration, and confidence when shooting the ball (57.1 effective field goal percentage). According to kenpom.com, only Denver (57.9) and Syracuse (57.8) have a higher eFG rating.

And, with all of its senior contributors, the Big Red stands out amongst its peers in experience. In fact, just about all of the mid major NCAA tournament teams that won first round games are more senior laden than the advancing powerhouses (not really a surprise when one considers the number of underclassmen from major schools who leave early; however, still worth noting a meaningful reason for the lesser known teams that win). Old Dominion, which recently lost to Baylor after taking down the veteran Notre Dame ship (3rd in NCAA experience) has but one go-to senior, yet five crucial juniors.

Cornell ranks eighth in experience in the nation and gets important production from seven at the top of their class -- including a point guard who has been a kenpom.com "go-to" since his freshman season and a transfer forward from Kentucky that provides power off the bench. The smarties from Ithaca boast a 7-footer and five players that shoot better than 43 percent from 3-point range. Plus, it's all been in the making for the last few years. Same coach. Same system.

The mid majors that advanced to the second round sported 18 senior contributors, double what teams had from the major conferences. From the historically top teams, only Tennessee has more than two contributing seniors. And only Syracuse and Duke have two. (Wisconsin had two as well before Cornell convincingly ended their run). Kansas was beaten by a Northern Iowa squad that parades three standout seniors. Meanwhile, New Mexico was just taken down by a traditional power team in Washington that edges the Lobos only by the slimmest of margins in experience.

Interesting to think about. Here are the sweet sixteen match-ups. Teams in bold are "favorites" to win while teams listed on the left are kenpom.com predicted winners. Average experience is listed for each team.

West Virginia 1.79 -- Washington 1.52

Duke 2.00 -- Purdue 1.83

Northern Iowa 1.96 -- Michigan St. 1.61

Ohio St. 2.00 -- Tennessee 1.92

Kentucky 0.84 -- Cornell 2.50

Syracuse 1.70 -- Butler 1.70

Kansas St. 1.71 -- Xavier 1.47

Baylor 1.73 -- St. Mary's 1.53

In all cases but one, experience trumps. And that contest features the youngest against the oldest ... two teams that are 9th and 10th in offensive efficiency (Cornell is a tad better) but worlds apart in defensive efficiency over the long term. The Wildcats are No. 8 in that category versus the Big Red's 131st ranking. But, that is why there is a tournament ... and maybe Cornell will continue to demonstrate how maturity correlates with domination as it did in the first two rounds and practically all season. From The Red Majority:

With an offense so explosive and efficient that it averaged nearly a point and a half per possession, Cornell laid down a wide swath of total basketball destruction.

We'll see if talented experience can battle experienced talent.

Mad Breakdown of Stats, Styles, and Coaching Shifts

What happens when you coach a team that finished first in its conference in free throw percentage, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, and rebounding defense?

You get fired. At least, in Kentucky you do...and if the school colors are blue and white.

Perhaps a trip to the Final Four could have saved Billy Gillispie. Though, according to new Wildcats coach John Calipari, only banners will save one from being banished in Lexington. National championship banners.

One could argue that Coach Cal brings with him a coaching style that allowed his Memphis team to finish at the top of Conference USA in field goal percentage defense and just a touch away from the best shooting team in the league (though free throws are not included in that...or 3-pointers). What else did his Tigers boast? Shot blocking, steal making, and rebounding. They were No. 1 in their conference in all of those categories.

Oh, and the Tigers outscored the Wildcats on average by a whole point, 75.1 to 74.1, placing the former third overall in Conference USA. Had the latter averaged the same amount, they would have moved up three ranking slots for fourth in the SEC.

What does all of this mean? Not too much in other years, perhaps, knowing that surprises and underdogs and Cinderellas have appeared in March. But this year, it's apparent there are two aspects of the game that scream consistency: scoring offense and rebounding, and the second is specific to the offensive end. Yes, being able to get stops is important, but not so much as point production (on the court and with the fans). Field goal percentage defense didn't help Gillispie save his job. From what others report, he stopped himself by not being able to impress the community and give the media what it wanted in charisma and personality.

Two of the remaining four teams in March Madness are first in scoring offense in their respective conferences: Michigan State (Big Ten) and North Carolina (ACC). Connecticut (Big East) is second, behind Syracuse, though the Huskies are ranked No. 1 in both Pomeroy and Massey ratings. Villanova, in this case of scoring power, goes from its own version of Wildcat to Tame-dog. It is sixth in Big East offense.

How important is being able to pound the boards? Extremely. The most important. Maybe even a stat that could have saved Gillispie. His 'Cats finished second in rebounding margin in league, but eighth in rebounding offense. Yikes. That is highway miles away from what his predecessor's Tigers accomplished. Memphis was No. 1.

What other teams finished first in cleaning their conference offensive glass? Michigan State, UConn, and UNC. Poor 'Nova was sixth. Majority wins though. Pounding and planting in the paint leads to more offensive attempts and more scoring. Maybe the Spartans aren't pretty to watch in a lay person's basketball mind, but they produce 71.8 points per game to lead the league, much to do with their No. 1 rebounding margin.

Who accumulated the same amount of points as Michigan State in the ACC this year? Maryland, which finished ninth in the conference in that stat. That shows why UNC is so extraordinary. Its pace is much quicker than any other team, demonstrated by the Tar Heels 90 points per game output. To know that they also have the fifth overall best assist to turnover ratio in the nation, one that is tops in the ACC, is something to note. No sooner did they demolish Oklahoma than did they realize they could play a much slower pace -- and still get the stops and scoring they needed to put the Big 12 foes in their own tar.

When one talks of balance and talent, its UNC. Right there with Carolina -- in Detroit -- is UConn. The Huskies have it all. The best scoring margin and rebounding offense in the ultra-competitive Big East, 80.2 points per game, and the best shot blocking in the country. It will be quite a challenge for the Spartans to stop the Huskies in their tracks and the Wildcats to stomp the 'Heels. But that is why they play the games...and Final Four hopefuls watch from home, and in some instances, a new one.

Cerebral Matter - March '09

Elite scientists are well-rounded... I like to believe this, knowing that my basketball players and other student-athletes at Caltech are talented in a number of areas. It's math and science first and basketball (hopefully) a close second. And many are expert musicians and artists as well:

"Some of the best scientists recommend looking for breadth of skills and talents in a variety of endeavors beyond the sciences.

In two previous posts, we argue that training in the arts benefits scientists in a variety of different ways. The best scientists are much more likely to be artists, musicians, actors, craftsmen, and writers than are typical scientists, or even the general public. Scientists draw skills, knowledge, processes, concepts, and even inspiration from their non-scientific avocations. Many are well aware of these advantages."

Leading and listening are skills. And being able to change one's mind is as well. Malcolm Gladwell explains.

Where are your thoughts? The past, present, or future? And are you now concerned that you didn't enjoy yourself when you had the chance? Some people could be suffering from hyperopia:

"They’re so obsessed with preparing for the future that they can’t enjoy the present, and they end up looking back sadly on all their lost opportunities for fun."

So, players DO think during the game. But not too much. And sometimes not at all. But then a little bit to help them later. Actually, it's all about having a really quick mind... which is an effect of practicing and playing and understanding the situations that may present themselves. Vince Carter summarizes:

"It’s all about memory through repetition and memory throughout the course of the game."

In-depth statistical analysis of the NCAA and NIT tourneys.

Even Bill Simmons is thinking like a coach. He wants details, man. Details about the inner game of statistical analysis. Simmons, like yours truly, was at the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference, and the Sports Guy was seeking answers:

"I want to know Wade's percentages on contested, wide-open and clock-saving threes. I want to know how many uncontested jumpers LeBron creates for teammates. I want "mega-assists" (passes that create a layup or a dunk) and "half-assists" (for each made foul shot). I want "unforced turnovers," like in tennis (Tony Allen would be Wilt Chamberlain in this category), and "nitty-gritties" (some combination of charges taken, deflections, balls saved from going out of bounds and rebounds tipped to teammates). I want "Unselds" (a long outlet pass that leads to an assist for a layup or a dunk) and "Russells" (a blocked shot directed to a teammate)."

Basketball instituted a 3-point line, a shot clock, replay, and a host of other changes as player development made the game too easy. Now, how about an adjustment in Scrabble?!

Impressions of Mad Basketball

March Madness began again, and depending on one’s interpretation, the forms of the madness were many. Here we take various definitions and break them down:

A state of mental illness, presumably temporary – Ameer Ali’s flagrant flip of Blake Griffin. He did his best to imitate a WWF move, though Blake was wary of his own reaction. It almost appeared that the Griffin beast was subduing himself post-takedown, like he knew what he was getting into.

Ever notice how Blake gets into bits of entanglement and possible scuffles? There is a reason, though contorted and borderline insane, that an opposing player may rack someone in the (Bill Raftery) onions. I suppose Griffin is used to situations like that since nobody can stop him and he aggravates defenders beyond belief. I see a bit of Rodman in him – ferocious and frustration generating – mixed with Lebron – mightily skilled and unyielding at the hint of resistance. His breakaway dunk on Saturday? Look out below, and watch out for onions…

A feeling of intense anger – Western Kentucky coach Ken McDonald after his unnoticed or ungranted attempt to call at T.O. in the last second of the game against Gonzaga. He was glaringly perturbed, as we saw from his mouthing of that is “B-S!” while pointing at the ref who failed to acknowledge his plead.

Unrestrained excitement – The outcome of the Gonzaga lay-in made one of the Bulldog players’ quite enthused. His plyometric-like two feet bounding exercise that caused his knees to come all the way up to his ears – about 10 times in a row – was astounding. He had to have been sore the next day. Well deserved though, for sure. I believe a Siena player mirrored the same image, in just about the same area on the sideline. Perhaps a Saint was watching over that spot?

How about the final games of each night? Like the basketball world was waiting for excitement to build all at the same time… on Friday, the first O.T. game of the tourney coupled with another one, and, of course, a second extra period in the first Siena game where “we want Moore” nailed the two crucial 3-pointers that had Albany rocking.

Extra anger and frustration – this from the viewer’s perspective. Why can’t CBS try to figure out how to stagger starts of games so that when there are three or four games ending all in unison – and each is fewer than a 5-point margin – that we are able to watch them all in full? Would that not increase the viewing pleasure and ratings rather than having to open two laptops to access the free Madness package online? Or get out the iPhone app and hold a close game in one’s palm? Argh.

Overflowing with eagerness – getting to see North Dakota State’s Woodside go toe-to-toe with Kansas’ Collins. Talk about a shootout. And a fundamentally expert one at that. Yes, they can both catch-and-score, but their individual moves and the way each of them draws attention from the D is fascinating. Tight inside-outs, stop-and-go’s, crossovers, and the ability to finish. Woodside had 37 on 13-of-23 shots. Collins was 12-for-26 for 32 points. Though the latter finished with 8 dimes and only 2 TO’s… plus a big man who made up for any miscues – the same center who managed a rare tournament triple-double two days later, with 10 blocks mind you.

Maybe many were not, but I was intrigued by the Syracuse-Arizona State game, a contest that featured two zone defenses. One that is a traditional 2-3 and a Boeheim staple. Another that is a Sendek standard, an aggressive matchup – one that looks like man-to-man at times. Who said a game with a slower pace wouldn’t feature scoring? The final was 78-67 and five Orangemen reached double figures. And how about Boeheim's backing of Sendek's N.C. State release?

“I thought somebody was pretty stupid and somebody was pretty smart,” Boeheim said. “I’m not going to mention which one.”

Speaking of being mad, did James Harden’s stock sink in three days? If scouts are looking at scoring, then yes. He had 10 points in the biggest game of his career, and six of them came from the charity stripe. The game before, versus Temple, produced practically the same stat line, with a 1-point decrement. He averaged 6.5 boards, 4 assists, and 2 steals, but gee. I like his presence and the consistency he creates for his team. If the next level is looking for takeover though, that wasn’t it.

Making madness a mentality – learning about details of individual programs is insightful, like how team identities are created via certain coaches. What may seem unlikely for one team is another’s MO. John Beilein wants to shoot the three – so, that is what they do:

“The most important drill for the Wolverines in practice, not surprisingly, is a 3-point shooting drill. Players take 50 3-pointers in five minutes, and they have to make a certain number to avoid having to run sprints."

Rick Pitino is glued to statistics. The most influential one is the number of deflections his Cardinals create:

“The Cardinals believe success is determined by deflections, a statistic pioneered in part by Pitino. When they reach 35 deflections in a game, they usually win.”

Not sure how many defections they produced against Siena, but it couldn’t have been 35. The Cardinals only generated three steals to the Saints’ eight. And several of the latter teams’ thefts came in that second half span that pulled them ahead. Close call for the Cards, though it was bound to happen with the feistiness and quickness of that caliber backcourt. Look at this seasons’ losing results – a capable Western Kentucky topped them. And Connecticut’s Huskies ran right through their press for a total of 40, yes 40, points in the paint.

Coach K seemed mad with the President’s choosing of the rival Tar Heels, suggesting that there are other matters with which Obama should concern himself… though Coach K did later say he was kidding. If anything, efficiency was the name of Duke in the latest battle against Texas. The Blue Devils shot 50 percent from 3-point range, took 27 free throws, had 8 steals, and only 9 turnovers. The Tar Heels were just behind in those stats even though they play a much faster pace. Who is most economical?

Mad or not, act as if… this from one of the more enlightening articles the past few days. Harvard women’s coach Kathy Delaney-Smith preaches the positive mentality of becoming what you dream, what you imagine yourself being… “Act as if”, she says. It’s a way to believe, to convince oneself to play, to think, to be a certain way…. As if you are champion, a winner, a competitor. She sure is. I had the pleasure of knowing her, coaching her son at camp, and working with one of her players as a performance consultant. It’s nice to know that she worked to get to where she is, that she was driven to learn basketball and figure out how to teach the game to various personalities, and to dedicate her life to education centered around a ball.

The madness continues…

Cognitive Collapse

Pressure can cause strange reactions. It can cause one to overreact, tighten up, or cloud one’s judgment. Whatever the case, if it’s not addressed with even a brief brain bout, the initial result can turn into an epidemic. Illustration: a championship event. Closing out a basketball game can be difficult on many levels, and Memphis learned that the hard way last night. With 8:50 left in the game, Kansas led 47-46. At the 2:12 mark, Memphis led 60-51 after Rose and company compiled a sizzling span in which the point guard himself scored 10 points. The Tigers looked like they were poised to cement the so-called “dream team” label, but the stability they used to get to that state suddenly vanished.

They gave up an uncontested jumper with 1:56, then threw the ball away as Kansas canned a three. CDR made two free throws, but his team went on to miss four of its next five. He also missed a crucial jumper that would have given Memphis a four-point cushion. Meanwhile, Kansas made two more freebies, another 2-pointer, and the clutch three to tie it with two ticks left. The OT was no contest. Memphis collapsed and Kansas capitalized. Emotions shifted. San Antonio became a swing region, where one party that had made such progress suddenly saw its seasonal development evaporate into the Texas air. A team that appeared confident for so long allowed the intensity of the moment to probe and then plow, forcing regrettable pressure to rise. And then, as Billy Packer gloriously commented (and I actually agreed with him), we witnessed the ability, rather inability, to make shots when pressure was paramount.

What happened to the 38-1 squad during the final, fatal fourth? Strong defense diminished. Heel-playing began. Hope overtook expectation. The mental game became most influential. Panic prevailed. Playing fast and being aggressive worked for Memphis. Slowing pace and having to think did not. For example, when it was shut off from the lane, by virtue of the lockdown man defense that cut off right hands and partly because of the box-and-one, creating shots in the half court became more difficult. The Tigers didn’t have enough re-routing power to combat the clutter. Couple that with a contaminated motor program in the last couple of minutes that prevented a smooth stroke and all Coach Cal was left with was a clowder of cats to be categorized as catastrophic.

The brain needs millions of neurons for a player to shoot and make a free throw. Complex functions occur at blazing rates that make use of all of the lobes and human senses. A plaguing thought or even an abrupt delusion can corrupt the shot, causing negativity, constriction, and, ultimately, misfire. Unfortunately for Memphis, the infection spread swiftly, just as the wings of the Jayhawks extended into "Self"ish history.

Other madness observations

• It took the “premier” college basketball announcer around four game minutes to realize the Jayhawks were in a box-and-one … once he did, he was very proud, repeating the finding a half dozen times.

• Is it me or does Digger Phelps incessantly bully Dicky V.? During the pre-game on ESPN in which the panel of experts was seated adjacent to the water, Bob Knight, in an explanation about officials not calling obvious charges said, “I can take Dick and with one finger I can push him back.”As Knight pressed Vitale’s chest with his index finger, Digger chimed in. “Not far enough … Right in the river, baby! … Say goodnight Dick! … Can you swim?!”
  

• The Stanford women wear black uniforms to intimidate, run the triangle offense, have a 20-point scorer, shoot more than 72 percent from the foul line, and hold teams to 56 points per game at 35 percent field goal shooting. Let’s see if those details work out against the defending national champions who average 78 points per game and have the best player in the women’s game. Should be another great one.

Sadness or Madness?

Thank you, Davidson. And thank you, Kansas. Thank you to Bob McKillop and Bill Self. And, of course, thank you to all of the coaches and players from the Wildcats and Jayhawks who finally produced a tournament game worth paying full attention for all forty minutes. I mainly speak for many of the nation's viewers since I will watch any and every game anyway. Folks who tune into the tube around tourney time are not always interested in which team runs the flex offense or plays a box and one or scores 30 percent of its points in the paint. (I watched this one with a soccer junkie). March-weather fans care about who wins, the excitement of individual plays, and most of all, if their bracket remains intact.

The Davidson-Kansas game, however, was the best game of the tournament. Possessions were crucial, defense was pronounced, structure was evident, and contrasting styles made for a solid storyline. Finally, a contest that was competitive (the exact situation one would hope for on the second weekend!). The average scoring margin of the other seven games over the last four days was 15.5. And none, barring the West Virginia-Xavier match, were even that close.

The top teams were, well, unquestionably dominant. So much for the popular “pressure to win as the favorite” argument. Even Memphis-Kansas turned into an old fashioned beat down. I must throw in one last thank you to the Memphis team for silencing all the critics. It shot over 83 percent from the free throw line. More significantly, the Tigers have attempted at least 32 free throws in each tournament game – even if they shoot a Shaq-like percentage, they’re getting 20 points from the stripe.

Coach isn’t sweatin’ either. According to Calipari, he has mentally tough players who shoot with correct mechanics, which eases his worry of misses in crunch time. In other words, “I told you so. Stop hating on the most athletic and most explosive team in the country. Who needs to shoot well from the perimeter when we can get to, and over the rim, with ease?” (Memphis has an effective field goal percentage of more than 50 percent and holds opponents under 44 percent in the same category. Plus, it is ranked eighth nationally in turnover percentage, meaning it takes care of the ball.)

A fan wants to see what is advertised – March Madness. Throughout the last week until Sunday night, all that swarmed was March Sadness. Where were the plays to make one jump out of a seat? The intense possessions? The last minute heroics? Four number one seeds in the finals…unprecedented. And a surprise at this point in history with the so-called uniformity in college basketball. Perhaps David Stern’s regulation to keep high school players out of the draft is already servicing amateur hoops. The strongest programs in the nation now have plenty (at least, more than the past few seasons) of pro prospects on their rosters. I suppose that if a youngster does have to attend a school before making the jump to the NBA, it behooves him to commit to a UNC, Memphis, UCLA or Kansas. May as well compete for a national title while going to a couple of classes.

Madness in the Hardwood Mind

And here we are again. Just a memory away, Florida's men were raising their second consecutive trophy after plowing through another field of 64, err, I mean, five. The Division I NCAA basketball tourney is not only a phenomenal competitive collaboration of the best college hoops, but a time that a nation takes part in the fast-paced action, last second heroics, and shining moments. And much of the time, analysts, coaches, players, and even some fans agree that the most mentally focused team will be the one to win its last game of the season.

Yes, I believe in that statement as well. Motivation, concentration, intensity, handling pressure, managing hype - all of these characteristics either impede or invigorate teams. And usually we, as a society, honor the most mentally tough group, the one that makes it through the first weekend unscathed, into the sweetness, and out to the last quad standing. How could that unit not be the most mentally stable? After all, there are so many outstanding teams and so many games throughout the year decided by just one possession. One possession! One block out. One secured loose ball. One cross screen. One inside out dribble. One shot.

Four major contributing factors to W's besides points scored are free throws, rebounds, field goal percentage, and turnovers. Great teams are able to stay at the top in all of these categories. But what about a mental toughness category? Wouldn't it be interesting to rate the psychological profile of a collective hoop group? Performance under pressure: 9. 40 minute focus: 8. High quality head: 10. Maybe the Florida team had a rating of 92. Then a 95 the next year. Was the North Carolina team a 93? UConn a 99? Was the Fab Five of Michigan that lost an 82? Arbitrary numbers, of course, but enthralling to say (or think) the least.

This year, as mentioned, it seems like a dozen teams have a chance at winning it all based on physical prowess, quicks, scoring possessions, coaching, and defensive schemes. But what about the mental factor and being able to absorb and divert pressure, manage emotions, and deal with on- and off-court challenges that only breed ever brewing madness?

Many have chosen Pittsburgh as the squad that will squash all others in the mental arena. Then there are the vets, the coaches and programs who have been there. Will they meet the anxiety and allow it to cook for them? UNC, Duke, UCLA... What about pressure to prove? Memphis, Kansas... Do Johnny or Self finally finish at the front? A Georgia Bulldog on a roll? A Butler opening the door for a new era? The best mid-range player leading the Mountaineers down the lane? Balanced Hoyas? We'll just wait and see. Tomorrow, the hardwood minds meet each other, most importantly themselves.