Random Madness to Wrap your Head Around

No No. 1 seeds this year. And no No. 2 seeds either.

None of the four head coaches with teams in this year's Final Four graduated from Division I institutions. Jim Calhoun played DII at American International College. John Calipari transferred from UNC-Wilmington and played at DII Clarion. Brad Stevens went to DIII DePauw University where he was up for Academic All-America. Shaka Smart played at DIII Kenyon College.

Calhoun is 68 years old. Stevens and Smart are 67 years old, combined.

All of the teams have mascots with four legs.

According to kenpom.com, there is a 58% chance the Wildcats (ranked 4th) will beat the Huskies 70-68 (ranked 11th) ... The Bulldogs (37th) will beat the Rams (50th) 70-68 as well (55% chance).

The Massey Ratings have UConn 4th and Kentucky 5th. Drop to 23rd for Butler and 31st for VCU ... Masseyratings.com says Kentucky is predicted to win 71-69 against UConn (win probability 54%) ... Butler is predicted to win 70-69 against VCU (win probability 52%).

Kenpom.com lists VCU with the highest average experience of the Final Four teams at 2.17 (48th nationally). Butler = 2.02 (76th nationally); Kentucky = 1.16 (312th); UConn = .95 (332nd) ... there are 345 teams ranked ... Kansas was 82nd. Ohio St. was 220th. The tournament team with the most experience was Wofford, ranked 2nd at 2.71.

In possession usage rate, three seniors (point guard Joey Rodriguez, forward Jamie Skeen, and wing Brandon Rozzell) lead the way for VCU. Butler uses junior guard Shelvin Mack as its go-to guy and senior forward Matt Howard as a significant contributor ... Kentucky's freshman big Terrence Jones is its go-to while frosh point guard sensation Brandon Knight leads as a major contributor. UConn's junior combo guard Kemba Walker is the go-to for the Huskies and freshman guard Shabazz Napier is a significant contributor.

VCU wants to set the pace against Butler. The Rams play with the highest tempo of the four and do better with speed. They need to score 70-plus points to win. Butler, on the other hand, doesn't like teams to get that much. Of its nine regular season losses, seven of them occurred when the other team scored 69 or more points.

Kentucky can play fast, too. And it is the best shooting team and best defensive team of the four (effective field goal percentage on offense = 52.7 ... eFG% defense = 44.2).

All four have stood out in full court conversion opportunities and half court execution, with VCU being the most impressive. A team that is so good playing fast isn't always spectacular in the half court (e.g., the Washington Huskies, according to Kenny Smith). The Rams, though, have been able to speed it up and score off makes, misses, and steals AND they can be patient with their sets. They set screens, they enter to the post, they cut hard, and they share the ball. Watch for a spin and immediate backdoor cut with the shot clock winding down ... or a back-to-back pick-and-roll to get off a shot opportunity.

Players to watch:

Hard hat, lunch bucket = Matt Howard

Heat check = Brandon Rozzell

Cool calm = Brandon Knight (and a 4.3 high school GPA to boot)

Game time = Kemba Walker in one game, Shelvin Mack in the other

Calhoun on Walker:

“Right now he's as good of a player in the country, midrange jump shot, he can make threes. To me he's the most valuable player in the United States,” Calhoun said. “So when I recruited him, I thought I was going to get a quick New York City point push guard, defender, all that type of thing. And he's evolved into even more than that.”

Stevens on Mack:

"You have to tell him to take days off," the coach said Monday. "Here is how hard he works and how important I think it is: If we have a time limit on an open practice, we'll stop early so he can get his shots up individually because I know how much it means to him."

Last year, it was all "all mental" for the Kansas Jayhawks. Looks like it was this year, too ... mainly because VCU drained them with everything it had in its own tank.

What does it take to make it this far?

Butler has shown what experience can do. And belief stemming from a team's ability to manage adversity during the season.

Stevens speaks:

“I think the teams that play the best basketball in the tournament are the teams that have a chance to win the tournament,” Stevens said. “It doesn't matter where you're from or how big your football program is or how much money is in your athletic department. It's about a group of kids coming together that five guys play on a court a once hopefully believing together that give you a great shot to compete.

“I think VCU and Butler played with a lot of pressure in January and February,” Stevens said. “When you get into the tournament, that pressure may flip a little bit. We're playing loose, we're playing for the first time in a lot of ways in a couple months where you've already been playing basically where you feel like you can't lose. So you're already used to that.

“So the NCAA tournament is a welcome. I think both teams have played really, really well because of that. Certainly they've got a lot more reasons than that. They are a loaded team that is really well‑coached.”

Calhoun said after the Final Four clinching win that he loves being around this year's team and has thoroughly enjoyed coaching it. His assistant Kevin Ollie says Calhoun is the toughest guy he knows.

Suite101 - "This year's Cinderella team, the No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams, is no fluke. They earned their berth in the Final Four with four impressive offensive performances and a lot of mental toughness."

Boston Herald - "Ambition is in ample supply at Butler. Likewise, physical and mental toughness."

Winning the Madness

Just enjoyed a full four days of the 2011 version of Division 1 March Madness. Great games for sure. And fabulous finishes, at least from a fan's perspective. Oh, the feeling of a winning end of a game-ending play ... or, yuck, the losing end of a play gone bad. The closing seconds of many games today, especially the close ones where plays were made for the best -- or not-made for the worst -- got me thinking: better offense or better defense?

(explorations and explanations utilize game box scores and kenpom.com for statistical references)

Sunday's examples:

1) With 5 seconds in the game, Washington was down just a point as it attempted to inbound the ball on its own baseline; however the pass was deflected and the ball stolen by North Carolina. UNC went on to sink two free throws and win by 3. The Huskies never got a great shot off because of the difficulty it had with the inbounds play.

FACTORS: UNC is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency. UW is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency but had 13 total turnovers, only attempted 7 free throws (made all 7), and shot a lower FG% than the Tar Heels (45.8% to 47%). Carolina shot 78% from the stripe but went to the line 23 times.

PRESSURE COOKER: Washington never got a great shot attempt in the end and had trouble scoring in its half court offense throughout, while Carolina did its thing on O and stepped up on D = defense created offense.

2) After being down 15 points midway through the second half, Michigan roared back to challenge Duke. Hardaway, Jr. scored 7 straight to bring the Wolverines to within 1 point with 1:18 left. A Blue Devils offensive rebound off a missed jumper led to an Irving jumper off the glass. Morris scored for Michigan then had to foul Smith with 9 ticks remaining. Smith made the first but missed the second. Morris then missed a running floater in the paint as time expired.

FACTORS: Duke's offensive efficiency is ranked 4th while its defensive efficiency is 3rd. Michigan's OE is 29th. DE is 33rd. Duke grabbed 9 offensive rebounds to Michigan's 4. Duke shot 72% from the free throw line while Michigan shot nearly 91 percent - but the Blue Devils went 25 times compared to 11.

PRESSURE COOKER: Both teams scored to keep it tight, then Duke missed free throw to pave a 3-point victory while Michigan missed good shot in lane -- non-contested -- to send it to OT = better offense sealed outcome, defense set the tone (Duke's perimeter D from the outset clamped down on Michigan's perimeter-minded attack ... the defensive tone was set but who was going to find openings?).

3) After a series of offensive boards and a made free throw by Williams with 2:01 left, Arizona was tied with Texas at 67 a piece. Brown hit a jumper for the Longhorns with 1:07 remaining and then prevented the Wildcats from scoring for another minute. Texas had possession on the baseline after a timeout, up 69-67. All the Longhorns had to do was inbound and take care of the ball, but they were called for 5 seconds. Arizona inbounded and found Williams off a pick and roll, he scored off a strong take and got fouled in the process. He made his free throw. Texas got a final layup off but it missed.

FACTORS: Arizona is ranked 18th in offensive efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage. Texas is 21st in OE and 4th in DE -- with a ranking of 5 on defensive eFG%. Zona shot 8 of 14 from 3-point range (57.1%) and had 2 more offensive boards than Texas.

PRESSURE COOKER: Wildcat defense stopped Longhorn inbounds play -> big time; Wildcat offense scored on Longhorn defense = defense allowed offense to be created.

4) With the scored knotted at 59 each, Syracuse had control on its own sideline but a miscue with its inbounds pass gave the ball away. Marquette regained possession and made the most of it by nailing a 3-pointer with 27 seconds left. The 'Cuse missed a 3 and Marquette sealed the game with four free throws.

FACTORS: Syracuse (no. 3 seed), statistically, is a better team, but on this night 11th seeded Marquette made 19 of 23 free throws (compared to 5 of 7 from the Orange). The Golden Eagles grabbed 11 O-boards to the Orange's 4. Syracuse had 18 turnovers. Marquette beat Syracuse earlier this season, too.

PRESSURE COOKER: Marquette got after it and created opportunities with rebounds and steals. Syracuse shot 55.3% from the field but other than that, it lost in every other offensive category = defense created offense ... and offense created offense for Marquette.

It's a hodgepodge of plays and stats and ranks. What is influential is how the climactic plays in three games, the ones that swayed the outcomes, came from suffocating defense that prevented great offense. UNC's deflection and steal. Arizona's forced 5-second count. Marquette's coerced backcourt violation. What is striking is all of these key turnovers that led to game-sealing points came from inbounds plays.

So, who from these winners has the best chance to win the whole tournament?

If data from the last six years is any indication, then none of them. Not Duke, North Carolina, Arizona or Marquette.

All signs point to THE Ohio State University. OSU is No. 1 in offensive efficiency. It has only lost two games this year, both in conference, and destroyed its two tourney opponents. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in eFG% and No. 7 in turnover percentage. Defensively, they are No. 6 in defensive efficiency and ranked No. 1 in opponent free throw rate. All of this means good luck stopping OSU and good luck scoring on them. Even attempting a foul shot is difficult.

Wisconsin is a slim possibility because of its No. 2 OE and No. 1 TO%.

Duke has an OE at No. 4 and a DE at No. 3.

San Diego State is No. 2 in DE and No. 7 in opponent eFG%.

The overall deciding factor: of the last six D1 NCAA champions, four of them finished the season ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency: Duke (2010), UNC (2009), Florida (2007), and UNC (2005).

The other two years of the previous six? The champion was 2nd in offensive efficiency: Kansas was No. 2 in in 2008; Florida was No. 2 in 2006.

Additionally, the 2008 Jayhawks, though not first in OE, were No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in eFG%.

The 2006 Gators were No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in eFG%.

The last seven NCAA winners finished with an overall rating -- offense and defense factors combined -- of at least No. 2 (FIVE were No. 1 overall).

Lesson: if you are not No. 1 in offensive efficiency, then you better be No. 2. And if you happen to be No. 2, you better have a ranking of at least 5 in another significant category to raise the overall stat. Otherwise, you'll lose ... if you are lucky enough to get to the championship. Of the runners-up in those six years, none had a ranking of 2 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Plenty of 3's and 4's though.

Taking 2004 and 2003 champs into consideration, it looks like the second half of the decade has gone to the teams at the very top of the rating system. Connecticut won in 2004 with an OE ranking of 4, a DE of 5, and an OBoard% of 3 ... so, three categories were a No. 5 ranking or better but none at Nos. 1 or 2.

Prior to that, Syracuse, who was No. 7 overall in kenpom.com rank, won in 2003 with OE at 11 and DE at 19. But the Orange had Carmelo Anthony -- and he must be considered an outlier ...

Bball Brief: Believe in Experience

Do you think the Cornell players ever saw this Pistol Pete video? Perhaps not, but they're busy compiling their own psychology of shooting clips.

They certainly have the conceptualization, concentration, and confidence when shooting the ball (57.1 effective field goal percentage). According to kenpom.com, only Denver (57.9) and Syracuse (57.8) have a higher eFG rating.

And, with all of its senior contributors, the Big Red stands out amongst its peers in experience. In fact, just about all of the mid major NCAA tournament teams that won first round games are more senior laden than the advancing powerhouses (not really a surprise when one considers the number of underclassmen from major schools who leave early; however, still worth noting a meaningful reason for the lesser known teams that win). Old Dominion, which recently lost to Baylor after taking down the veteran Notre Dame ship (3rd in NCAA experience) has but one go-to senior, yet five crucial juniors.

Cornell ranks eighth in experience in the nation and gets important production from seven at the top of their class -- including a point guard who has been a kenpom.com "go-to" since his freshman season and a transfer forward from Kentucky that provides power off the bench. The smarties from Ithaca boast a 7-footer and five players that shoot better than 43 percent from 3-point range. Plus, it's all been in the making for the last few years. Same coach. Same system.

The mid majors that advanced to the second round sported 18 senior contributors, double what teams had from the major conferences. From the historically top teams, only Tennessee has more than two contributing seniors. And only Syracuse and Duke have two. (Wisconsin had two as well before Cornell convincingly ended their run). Kansas was beaten by a Northern Iowa squad that parades three standout seniors. Meanwhile, New Mexico was just taken down by a traditional power team in Washington that edges the Lobos only by the slimmest of margins in experience.

Interesting to think about. Here are the sweet sixteen match-ups. Teams in bold are "favorites" to win while teams listed on the left are kenpom.com predicted winners. Average experience is listed for each team.

West Virginia 1.79 -- Washington 1.52

Duke 2.00 -- Purdue 1.83

Northern Iowa 1.96 -- Michigan St. 1.61

Ohio St. 2.00 -- Tennessee 1.92

Kentucky 0.84 -- Cornell 2.50

Syracuse 1.70 -- Butler 1.70

Kansas St. 1.71 -- Xavier 1.47

Baylor 1.73 -- St. Mary's 1.53

In all cases but one, experience trumps. And that contest features the youngest against the oldest ... two teams that are 9th and 10th in offensive efficiency (Cornell is a tad better) but worlds apart in defensive efficiency over the long term. The Wildcats are No. 8 in that category versus the Big Red's 131st ranking. But, that is why there is a tournament ... and maybe Cornell will continue to demonstrate how maturity correlates with domination as it did in the first two rounds and practically all season. From The Red Majority:

With an offense so explosive and efficient that it averaged nearly a point and a half per possession, Cornell laid down a wide swath of total basketball destruction.

We'll see if talented experience can battle experienced talent.

Mad Breakdown of Stats, Styles, and Coaching Shifts

What happens when you coach a team that finished first in its conference in free throw percentage, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, and rebounding defense?

You get fired. At least, in Kentucky you do...and if the school colors are blue and white.

Perhaps a trip to the Final Four could have saved Billy Gillispie. Though, according to new Wildcats coach John Calipari, only banners will save one from being banished in Lexington. National championship banners.

One could argue that Coach Cal brings with him a coaching style that allowed his Memphis team to finish at the top of Conference USA in field goal percentage defense and just a touch away from the best shooting team in the league (though free throws are not included in that...or 3-pointers). What else did his Tigers boast? Shot blocking, steal making, and rebounding. They were No. 1 in their conference in all of those categories.

Oh, and the Tigers outscored the Wildcats on average by a whole point, 75.1 to 74.1, placing the former third overall in Conference USA. Had the latter averaged the same amount, they would have moved up three ranking slots for fourth in the SEC.

What does all of this mean? Not too much in other years, perhaps, knowing that surprises and underdogs and Cinderellas have appeared in March. But this year, it's apparent there are two aspects of the game that scream consistency: scoring offense and rebounding, and the second is specific to the offensive end. Yes, being able to get stops is important, but not so much as point production (on the court and with the fans). Field goal percentage defense didn't help Gillispie save his job. From what others report, he stopped himself by not being able to impress the community and give the media what it wanted in charisma and personality.

Two of the remaining four teams in March Madness are first in scoring offense in their respective conferences: Michigan State (Big Ten) and North Carolina (ACC). Connecticut (Big East) is second, behind Syracuse, though the Huskies are ranked No. 1 in both Pomeroy and Massey ratings. Villanova, in this case of scoring power, goes from its own version of Wildcat to Tame-dog. It is sixth in Big East offense.

How important is being able to pound the boards? Extremely. The most important. Maybe even a stat that could have saved Gillispie. His 'Cats finished second in rebounding margin in league, but eighth in rebounding offense. Yikes. That is highway miles away from what his predecessor's Tigers accomplished. Memphis was No. 1.

What other teams finished first in cleaning their conference offensive glass? Michigan State, UConn, and UNC. Poor 'Nova was sixth. Majority wins though. Pounding and planting in the paint leads to more offensive attempts and more scoring. Maybe the Spartans aren't pretty to watch in a lay person's basketball mind, but they produce 71.8 points per game to lead the league, much to do with their No. 1 rebounding margin.

Who accumulated the same amount of points as Michigan State in the ACC this year? Maryland, which finished ninth in the conference in that stat. That shows why UNC is so extraordinary. Its pace is much quicker than any other team, demonstrated by the Tar Heels 90 points per game output. To know that they also have the fifth overall best assist to turnover ratio in the nation, one that is tops in the ACC, is something to note. No sooner did they demolish Oklahoma than did they realize they could play a much slower pace -- and still get the stops and scoring they needed to put the Big 12 foes in their own tar.

When one talks of balance and talent, its UNC. Right there with Carolina -- in Detroit -- is UConn. The Huskies have it all. The best scoring margin and rebounding offense in the ultra-competitive Big East, 80.2 points per game, and the best shot blocking in the country. It will be quite a challenge for the Spartans to stop the Huskies in their tracks and the Wildcats to stomp the 'Heels. But that is why they play the games...and Final Four hopefuls watch from home, and in some instances, a new one.

Cerebral Matter - March '09

Elite scientists are well-rounded... I like to believe this, knowing that my basketball players and other student-athletes at Caltech are talented in a number of areas. It's math and science first and basketball (hopefully) a close second. And many are expert musicians and artists as well:

"Some of the best scientists recommend looking for breadth of skills and talents in a variety of endeavors beyond the sciences.

In two previous posts, we argue that training in the arts benefits scientists in a variety of different ways. The best scientists are much more likely to be artists, musicians, actors, craftsmen, and writers than are typical scientists, or even the general public. Scientists draw skills, knowledge, processes, concepts, and even inspiration from their non-scientific avocations. Many are well aware of these advantages."

Leading and listening are skills. And being able to change one's mind is as well. Malcolm Gladwell explains.

Where are your thoughts? The past, present, or future? And are you now concerned that you didn't enjoy yourself when you had the chance? Some people could be suffering from hyperopia:

"They’re so obsessed with preparing for the future that they can’t enjoy the present, and they end up looking back sadly on all their lost opportunities for fun."

So, players DO think during the game. But not too much. And sometimes not at all. But then a little bit to help them later. Actually, it's all about having a really quick mind... which is an effect of practicing and playing and understanding the situations that may present themselves. Vince Carter summarizes:

"It’s all about memory through repetition and memory throughout the course of the game."

In-depth statistical analysis of the NCAA and NIT tourneys.

Even Bill Simmons is thinking like a coach. He wants details, man. Details about the inner game of statistical analysis. Simmons, like yours truly, was at the MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference, and the Sports Guy was seeking answers:

"I want to know Wade's percentages on contested, wide-open and clock-saving threes. I want to know how many uncontested jumpers LeBron creates for teammates. I want "mega-assists" (passes that create a layup or a dunk) and "half-assists" (for each made foul shot). I want "unforced turnovers," like in tennis (Tony Allen would be Wilt Chamberlain in this category), and "nitty-gritties" (some combination of charges taken, deflections, balls saved from going out of bounds and rebounds tipped to teammates). I want "Unselds" (a long outlet pass that leads to an assist for a layup or a dunk) and "Russells" (a blocked shot directed to a teammate)."

Basketball instituted a 3-point line, a shot clock, replay, and a host of other changes as player development made the game too easy. Now, how about an adjustment in Scrabble?!

Analysis with the Aces

Just getting back from the third annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference held at MIT. On the day of the Institute’s men’s basketball team’s historical run into the second round of the DIII NCAA Tournament (more on that later), there was quite a lineup to view inside the intentionally contorted design known as the Stata Center.

For a college basketball coach with an eye for education (and by the looks of the conference list, the sole head coach in attendance), the schedule was quite sensational – a highly anticipated hodgepodge of intellects and athletic aficionados. Always looking beyond basic basketball strategy to fit into personal hoops program philosophy, the panels provided content on psychological research in sport, techniques to utilize statistics that go far beyond basic box scores, and a dearth of hot discussions – many of which were astutely entertaining – from fans’ roles to front office finances to the fortunes of hockey fights.

Jeff Van Gundy mixed in noteworthy, nutty comments with invigorating insight. Marc Cuban played a subdued self, and displayed impressive statistic analytic talk. Daryl Morey paced dialogue with subtle promotion of the Rockets’ reverie. Sonny Vaccaro passionately pleaded for a new look age; specifically, a hopeful time when there is no minimum age limit for NBA players and NCAA student-athletes are able to reap rewards in the form of stipends. Dean Oliver explained, ever so slightly, that everything in basketball is measurable, albeit with enough minds and material. Armond Hill preached the importance of professional leaders and conversed of a commitment to team chemistry – characteristics that allowed the Celtics to clinch last season’s title.

From NBA reporters to ESPN writers to top executives to pro sport’s statistical gurus, this was certainly the place to be for folks searching for numbers and names that go beyond the typical terms we hear and read on a daily basis. The data only substantiated my thoughts about community involvement, competitive practices, group cohesion, creative coaching methods, and countless hours of statistical analysis based on video breakdown and play-by-play. Being crunched into one venue with all of this information and a variety of individuals was very inspiring.

Program Refreshers

It has been a hectic, yet exciting time for me in this unprecedented move to Pasadena. I've been constantly thinking about the basketball program and the vision -- what to do, what not to do, what to expect, what not to expect.

From a psychological standpoint, a newly tapped energy is injected into an athletics team when a new staff takes over. People -- students, faculty, staff, administration -- are pumped. Questions arise everyday as university community members want to know about the upcoming season, the philosophy of the team, the outlook for the future. It's quite an experience -- especially considering I'm walking around a campus that is home to an Einstein getaway and 16 Nobel Prize Winners in science and medicine!

During the past week, I've jumped into every phase of the program, from relationship building to recruitment to alumni relations. Brief moments in the otherwise exhilarating activities have allowed me to explore what other coaches are doing (or could be doing) with their programs as they prepare for their first 2008-09 tip-off:

Thanks to HoopsCoach, we know what the Boston Celtics are talking about: discipline.

The Cross Over Movement brings up the question: do traditional training methods mean they have to last forever?

In the Coach's Network, when is the tough approach the one to utilize?

Musselman explains what 10 team are emphasizing -- everything from running to moving the ball to playing defense to creating chemistry.

Ah ha -- statistical analysis -- to use or not to use?

Positivity is great. Negativity not so great. Perhaps the priority is to be just plain real.

It's best not to reinvest, from a mental processing point of view -- otherwise, one chokes. (see previous post on pushing fast forward on the moment).

Comparing Results, Similar Ratings

There have been a substantial number of visits to this site since the post on USA player productivity, a summary of statistics derived from the Performance and Productivity rating (PaP). Here, we compare results from some of the more popular formulas known to calculate an estimate of productivity, whether the analysis is referred to as NBA Efficiency, Win Score, Game Score, Credit, PaP, or WARP. I even threw in an experimental "colleague" stat.

As one can guess from box scores and observations, Wade and James are always at the top. Bosh follows them in third, except in the new PaP, a stat that accounts more than the old for the ability to score. Here, we find Kobe in the top three. The big man from the Raptors was certainly an important power in the team's run for the gold and these stats do not account for the number of screens he set, how hard he ran the floor, or how he squatted into his stance to defend guards. Chris Paul is consistently in the top five and, by far, the most influential point guard. From there, it’s the steady Carmelo Anthony and Dwight Howard rounding out the top six.

By no means are these statistics a substitute for the ability to play basketball within a system, nor do they define strategy, leadership, chemistry, or other intangibles -- but they are interesting to examine. For an even more in depth analysis of Team USA that uses +/-, explore APBRmetrics.

(click to enlarge)

When It All Comes Together

Cohesion, coaching, feel, focus, and talent. It all came together in the Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Final, which I was finally able to catch on NBCOlympics.com. The USA and Spain were quite effective on offense as players from both teams were often able to create penetration opportunities via dribble drives or entry passes. Spain actually attempted 20 more 2-point field goals than the US. Spain made an effort to use pick-and-rolls to open up the floor and pound the ball into the Gasols while the Spanish zone forced (or allowed, depending on interpretation) the US to take 28 3-pointers (of which the Americans hit 13). In sum, though, the effective field goal percentages, which adjust for the fact that a 3 is worth one more point than a 2, tell the story with Team USA converting at a rate of 70% on 65 attempts to Spain’s 57% on 74 shots. A look at the true shooting percentages, which integrate free throws, also supports the outcome: US 73% to Spain 62%.

The teams executed their game plans and only committed a combined 27 turnovers. Whereas the US often relied on game flow predicated on spreading the floor, 4 out-1 in situations, and transition scoring, Team Spain used its pick-and-roll game, hi-low action, and inside presence to generate a balance of scoring opportunities. Team USA ran two dozen pick-and-rolls to start its half court plays, often with Chris Bosh initiating the action. The couple of times that Bosh and Dwight Howard slipped their screens, they were found in the paint for a 2-point conversion or a Spanish foul.

Though it only scored directly on five of those P&R’s, the Americans were able to move the ball or penetrate for lay-ups or wide-open kick outs. Spain had a hard time containing the driving abilities and passing of its opponent, although the US was not unbelievable at stopping Spain’s attack either. Time and time again, Spain was able to blitz through checkpoints, often out of its 1-2 high set that allows the playmaker to come off of a pick at either elbow. As the US failed to close down those areas, Spain moved the ball and capitalized on poor rotations and slow defensive block slide-downs for 2’s or kick-outs for 3’s. The US did, however, make an effort to contest shots, and even when Spain scored, Coach Mike D’Anotoni’s lightning fast outlets off of makes put the US at an advantage.

Dwyane Wade, as usual, was spectacular throughout with a PaP of 40.4 (for those familiar with John Hollinger’s Game Score, Wade’s was 22.4, 8 points higher than Kobe’s). Wade went right at the rim when he first touched the ball in the first quarter, steadily opened up his game with four 3-pointers, and produced breakaways with sleek steals. Kobe took over in the fourth and demonstrated to the world his killer instinct that has so often been discussed (PaP 24.5, GmSc14.2). Chris Paul also went to work and demonstrated why his versatility was so important for his team’s fortunes (PaP 26.3, GmSc 11.8).

Other observations:

Although used sparingly, Tayshaun Prince utilized his eight minutes in the final game and made significant plays (PaP 34.5).

Interesting how Carmelo Anthony really relished the role of spot-up shooter -- he did not have to do much else. He was second on the team to Kobe’s 53 3-point attempts. Melo took 37 3’s during the Games and 27 2’s (don’t think he reached his predicted rebounding goal).

Coach K called two time-outs in the final. After the first one, Spain turned to its zone defense and the US attempted three straight 3-pointers and missed all of them. Fortunately for Team USA, it had Kobe on the floor, and in attack mode, after the second US time-out. He proceeded to drive in for a lay-up, record two assists, and nail a 3.

Despite Wade’s dominance, Kobe’s outstanding team play, and CP13’s steadiness, Lebron James was voted most important USA player on this site’s poll by a wide margin, winning by more than 30 votes. There is no substitute for a 6’8” phenom who can block shots like he is receiving TD passes, power dribble through defenses as if he is a rushing fullback, distribute like a PG, or put on a showy smile with the best of them.

Congrats, Team USA. It was an exciting and inspiring run…

A Look at USA Basketball Productivity

Out of pure curiosity, I calculated performance and productivity ratings (PaP) for individual players on the USA Men’s Basketball Olympic Team through their first six games. The results help evaluate the opinions of visitors who voted on this site’s poll – more importantly, the statistics provide data to support who is “gettin’ it done by goin’ to work” during the Games.

Even the common viewer can postulate that King James is a flat-out star and “Superman” Howard is a beast in the paint. Bosh, as his production shows, has been active and provided stability at both ends of the floor. Besides Bron-Bron, however, nobody has been more multitalented than the man from Miami.

D-Wade has performed like the Energizer bunny on Red Bull, and the ratings demonstrate his versatile play. He has been absolutely everywhere, offensively and defensively and, to the average fan, a heck of a player to be coming off the bench. As many coaches say, though, it’s not who starts – it’s who finishes the game. And in Wade’s case, it’s also what he does every minute he is on the floor.

Here are the ratings for all players who have logged at least 75 minutes. Note that in creating the formula for these ratings, I attempted to attend to the points of emphasis for this USA team, namely defense and rebounding (Coach K priorities), sharing and taking care of the ball, and ability to convert all types of shots: free throws, 2-point field goals and 3-point field goals.

Interestingly, the top five are a solid squad, especially if we think of a more typical lineup with two bigs, two wings, and a point, rather than the 4-out, 1-in trend.

Head Count: Crunching Championship Numbers

The latest line has Memphis favored by two over Kansas in tonight’s NCAA national final. After its convincing win over UCLA on Saturday, the Tigers are poised to add to their history making season with one last victory – a W that would give them their 39th of the campaign. The Kansas Jayhawks, however, will be no pushover after they forced a nation to take notice with their trouncing of North Carolina. The team from the Big 12 demonstrated why its defense is ranked number two in the country with relentless guard pressure and swarming help (ten steals and nine blocks). The Memphis D is almost identical, though the Tigers cause more opponent misses from behind the arc.

In fact, practically all of the other team numbers are similar. Both teams average 80 points per game and hold teams to 61. Kansas has a slightly higher effective field goal percentage due to its ability to hit the three (Memphis actually takes and makes more three’s per contest!) Kansas free throw shooting is right where it needs to be at 70 percent, ten percentage points higher than Memphis (though, again, the Tigers killed it from the charity stripe on Saturday going 20-23, getting to the line more often than the Bruins thanks to its penetrating guard tandem of Douglas-Roberts and Rose).

Both teams are great at taking care of the ball. Memphis only turns it over 17 percent of its possessions, less than twelve times on average – critical considering it plays at a high pace with 70 possessions per game. Kansas is about the same, averaging just one more TO per outing. When it comes to cleaning the glass, both teams are plus seven.

Let’s go deeper. Both teams want to get up and down the floor. They both finish well. Both play great defense. The Tigers have two guys in double figures (CDR is #78 at 17.7 ppg. nationally) while the Jayhawks have four, none of which are ranked in the top 100 although that is a positive stat. Memphis is going to run its dribble-drive-motion (drive, kick, drive, kick, “Rose jump as high as he can and get off a shot,” maybe miss, Dorsey eat the glass, and dunk you very much). Kansas may have the guards that can contain and prevent the DDM with Chalmers and Robinson leading the way (they get more than four steals per game), plus it has a big guard in Brandon Rush to rotate. What could be key is the post players who are waiting in the paint for non-stop penetration – Arthur and Aldrich swatted a total of eight shots on Saturday. Both Kansas and Memphis, with length, athleticism, and sound defenses, are very good at preventing foe foul line visits. Just getting to the line more than 20-25 times is going to be crucial.

Kansas must limit the Rose from blooming, deny CDR, and contest shots in the lane. It must get good shots via its versatile offensive sets that utilize various screening series. Coach Self-“less” play has allowed the Jayhawks to advance with a balanced attack that keeps the opponent guessing. Memphis will have to defend inside and out, and hope that its guards can do damage as they’ve done all year. While crossing Tiger paws that Dozier and Dorsey stay out of foul trouble, creating scoring possessions off of turnovers and maximizing free throw opportunities could give Coach Cal’s team just enough for the title. Let’s hope that Kansas can stay focused for 40 minutes and not have a mental breakdown with poor possessions like it did against UNC midway through. It would be great to see a national title game go down to the last shot. There is no question that both teams want it and have the weapons, but who will play with enough stability to make it happen?

Full Court Press

• FOR RECENT MAJOR PRESS, CHECK CALTECHBASKETBALLBLOG.COM
• From Bethlehem to SportsCenter in Albany Times Union
• Numb3rs in the LA Times
• Q & A on College Fast Break
• Preview from the Pasadena Star News
• From the Basketball Interview Challenge
  
• To Caltech in the NCAA News, TrueHoop, and d3hoops
• Statistical Highlights in TrueHoop
• Doc on Athletic Intelligence in SLAM Magazine
• 20 Second Timeout Interview
• All-Star Game in Boston Globe
• Doc to Coach All-Stars
• Bartolotta Named All-America
• First Ever Josten's Finalist
• Past Standout D'Auria in Globe
• MIT Wins Kainan Invitational