On Streaks and Such

As sports enthusiasts, it’s in our nature to get hyped about what we witness -- and believe contemporary events of triumph trump those parallel in history. “I saw the Blake over Kendrick dunk in person.” “I was there to see Terry get Knigthed by LeBron.” “I witnessed the greatest team ever.” Our drive to compete is embedded in how we watch sport unfold. How quickly we forget the past, and (sometimes) how quick we are to dismiss the now.

During the current Heat streak, LeBron has been performing in the clutch with unfathomable numbers. He has had the opportunity to showcase his scoring and playmaking skills to the tune of a cumulative triple-double over 48 minutes in crunchtime. Miami’s drive for the NBA all-time record (the 1971-72 Lakers won 33 in a row) is, of course, much dependent on the rest of the team and James’ partner in streak-setting, Dwyane Wade. While (leading up to Wednesday night's game) LeBron is shooting 57 percent from the field and averaging 26.9 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 7.9 assists over these 23 games, Wade (35.8 mpg, .546 FG, 23.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 5.9 apg) isn’t far behind. It’s safe to say they are a hot duo.

A fair comparison, of course, is the 1996-97 Chicago Bulls team who holds the best regular season record with 72 wins and just 10 losses, a mark that barely overtook those aforementioned Lakers. In all this talk of greatest players ever and what (may) become the best team of all time, we recount what those Bulls did (two separate streaks of 13 and 18 in a row) and how they did it.

Perhaps it’s not how many in a row that really matters, but the significance of the wins during the streak. People say that in order to be mentally focused and physically ready for the grueling playoff run it’s important to have critical rest. The NBA schedule doesn’t help matters -- it’s an uncontrollable part of the process. But coaches and players can help themselves by earning valuable recovery periods, albeit slim, during games. The memory I have of that Bulls team is Jordan and Pippen and other starters being able to take some time off during the fourth quarters because they were blowing teams out. Chicago won four games in a row by 24-plus points that saw Jordan and Pippen average just 68.5 minutes together (96 is max in regulation). The best Heat streak so far is a 4-game stretch of win margins by 10, 13, 19, and 24. Despite Miami’s widest point margin being Chicago’s lowest in those big wins, the tandem of LeBron and Wade still only played 69.8 minutes.

Though the Bulls bullied through another 3-game mini streak with wins of 20, 20, and 22, it didn’t alter the overall brunt of minutes Jordan and Pippen endured during the 18 game excitement. Coincidentally, Jordan’s average minutes during this time were the exact same as LeBron’s (through 23 games): 37.5 mpg. MJ shot 51 percent and averaged 31.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.8 assists during the stretch. Pippen? You guessed it -- practically on par with Wade at 35.9 minutes per game to go along with 21.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.

The dilemma of when to rest and how to do it is much of a coaching staff’s dialogue. Being able to keep players fresh while helping them stay engaged is crucial, while forecasting for the long term (postseason run) digs deep in their minds. Much discourse can also be consumed in HOW teams play. Do players take plays off to rest? If so, does the offensive system limit pounding on the lower extremities? The Bulls triangle offense was a passing game, quite different than what Miami does. The latter consists of lots of dribble drives, pick and roll action, and isolations. It takes more energy to explode to the paint with the ball than it does to cut without it -- mental pace varies. Those Bulls were a tremendous passing team and Jordan, despite a stigma of shooting too much, was a fabulous set up guy (just go back and watch some of those late 90’s games). More energy consumption may lie in how a team collaborates, whether on the floor or not.

One would think it beneficial -- the more blowouts, the better -- so that the prime players can rest, but (for example) is an 8-minute differential (the difference between a 32-minute night and 40) really all that helpful? Perhaps more mentally than physically. LeBron has been willing his team to win in several close games, comebacks and overtime to boot. Jordan, however, didn’t regularly have to play in the closing minutes (the Bulls had only three single-digit wins of their 18; the Heat have had nine thus far). MJ could sit and smile and oversee his mastery, one that passed him by in many fourth quarters and left evidence of his (and Pippen’s) dominance. He, in effect, let himself out of work early. LeBron, however, has to muster the (mental) stamina to close these games out. Though playing time is similar it’s WHERE the minutes occur that really matter. Stats are harder to come by when the game is close, when teams are structuring every possession to get stops. It’s a grind, and in that scenario, LeBron is performing at one of the highest levels we’ve ever seen -- it’s also enabling him to produce those stats. (Haters will insert selfish stat production theory here, a broader scheme of missing bunnies intentionally to gather more boards.)

The intention here is not to compare players or even teams for the sake of winning an argument -- it’s just too difficult even with NBA2K simulations and all the advanced statistics available. (Though, do note, that Bulls squad was No. 1 in the League in both offensive and defensive efficiency in ‘95-’96.) It’s not even worth going into how those ‘71-’72 Lakers dominated in a completely different era. (They had only 11 single digit wins of their 33, and tallied three 30-plus victories, two 40 or more.) What’s significant is watching Miami dominate with dynamic teamwork and skills.

Let’s just sit back and enjoy the evolution.

Cerebral Matter (Playoff Variety)

I know. It's been a while. But there is something about the NBA Playoffs that pushes the pen and inspires inquiry. Perhaps it's a couple long, long-range Lebron jumpers and an effortless triple-double. Phil's insistence of fortuitous free throws -- followed by Durant's rousing roundball retaliation(s). A KG elbow. Lapses and collapses and relapses. How teams respond ... or just give up games on the road because it's "all about protecting home court." Psychological teasing. Crowd pleasing. A Noah remARK that Cleveland "sucks" and how a new kid will boost the young Bucks (see last segment).

All that and then some. Mainly, it's D-Wade that provokes playoff prowess. After all, he is No. 1 in Finals performances. It's mesmerizing to watch Wade do what he did this past Sunday, even though we may have seen similar sequences from others before his 46-point outburst. The fiery compilation produced a memorable scene of him screaming at his shooting hand.

"We were just having a little conversation," said Wade, who had 19 points in the fourth quarter, including 4 of 4 from the 3-point line. "I was just telling him he was hot."

Was it a case of his hot hand? Or more of a hot head (a.k.a. mentally tough mind) -- a strong feeling of confidence that shots will fall -- as in utter enjoyment and efficacious rhythm that draws on zones of optimal functioning or scarcely achieved flow states? A proposed simple explanation from a Caltech Ph.D. conveys the value of confidence, an innermost feeling that can override any sort of statistical analysis or physical fiber:

When you're learning to perform a task for the first time, a "hot hand" type of belief is probably both factually correct (you actually are more likely to get it right if you just got it right a minute ago) and also adaptive (do it right --> more confidence --> do it the same way again, do it wrong --> less confidence --> do something different.)

The basketball players under discussion have skills that are more or less mature; they're not going to get measurably better at shooting over the course of a game. But maybe part of the brain doesn't "know" that. From the point of view of this learning mechanism in the brain, maybe the fact that you just sunk a few baskets indicates that you've learned something new about shooting, so it's time to positively reinforce that learning with a flush of confidence.

Or maybe there were other factors that allowed Dwyane to wade through the Celtic waters with a one-man cast and pounce when the time -- and feeling -- was right.

Chris Forsberg of ESPNBoston.com:

While Wade's glossy 46-point output -- the highest of his playoff career -- is hard to look past, particularly the way he single-handedly rallied the Heat at the start of the fourth quarter of a do-or-die game, the Celtics' mental lapses led to their 101-92 loss in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series Sunday at AmericanAirlines Arena.

The Celtics pack a 3-1 series lead and head back to Boston for Game 5 on Tuesday.

For all their talk about being focused solely on Game 4, the Celtics sure didn't appear poised at the start of Sunday's game. The first quarter featured a slew of ill-advised shots and sloppy passes that handed the Heat a pair of big runs.

... and just catching up on some other mental game mentions ...

Jeff Caplan of ESPNDallas.com:

San Antonio's third-quarter Game 4 annihilation, a complete physical and mental domination of Dallas, will go down as the latest playoff collapse of the Mark Cuban era unless a team that appears mind-blown can regroup and somehow win three in a row.

"It's good, man," Jason Terry said, perhaps trying to convince himself, during Sunday's aftermath. "It's good because when your back's against the wall, you really find out who you are, not only as an individual, but as a team. I know what we have on this team and I know what it's going to take for us to get this job done."

Frances White of BleacherReport.com:

Speaking of growing up; Michael Beasley specifically is the one that Wade hopes will take the leap from JV status to Varsity play. Miami's hope of any advancement relies on this gifted athlete's ability to match his mental capacity with his physical tools.

At times he makes it look so easy he can drive effectively with either hand and he can extend the defense with his three point shooting. He even shows some toughness on the boards in spurts. Sadly, the Heat are not looking for spurts they are looking for consistency.

It takes longer for a big man to grow into his game so the Heat will have patience; even though he will be fodder for the big men of the NBA for now.

Kurt Helin of ProBasketballTalk.com

What gets overlooked with these Lakers is that when healthy, when focused, this was one of the best defensive teams in the league. They were for much of the season. If they return to that form they can shut teams down.

What really is the Lakers calling card is they have the mental game down. It hasn't looked that way lately but they do. Phil Jackson has two hands full of rings for a reason. Kobe is tough. Gasol is mentally tough. The Lakers have won a title, been to the Finals two straight years. They know what it takes more than any team in the West.

When you have the mental game to go with all that high-priced talent. You can win it all. They just have to flip the switch.

Jack Fertig of JackFertig.com:

Larry Brown has made the statement that he doesn’t know whether his Charlotte Bobcats can actually beat the Orlando Magic. Many in the field of psychology would be appalled if they heard the leader of a group say something that would plant a seed of doubt in his team. Being the underdog in the series, you’d think the coach would try to bolster the confidence of his club.

Why, then, would Brown make a comment like that? My guess is that what Larry Brown said is exactly what he believes - and he’s been around long enough and has had so much success that he feels it would be foolish to try to play mind games or use some other psychological ploy.

from NBA.com:

Skiles, no slouch himself running a team in his 10 years in the league as a player, has worked with Jennings at every step. No, Jennings' game is not much like his teacher's, but their vision on the court is something they share.

Now Skiles is waiting to see what Jennings can do in the playoffs.

When asked what he has seen in Jennings' mental makeup that makes him confident that the playoffs won't be too big for him to handle as a rookie, Skiles paused.

"I didn't say that," Skiles said.

Skiles seemed to be sending a message: show me, kid.

"It's going to be interesting to see how he responds," Skiles said. "I would have no problem believing that Brandon's going to come out and play very well in Game 1. You know, on the other hand, it's a different thing. It's something he's got to go through."

What's the Point?

Well, at this point in the 2009 NBA playoff race, the point position seems to be point production -- otherwise known as scoring at an unprecedented consistency. Through Friday, a dozen players listed as point guards in the league (via espn.com) were averaging 14.7 points or more, with Tony Parker leading the way at a 28.6 clip. It makes no difference that Parker and the next three at the top (Andre Miller, Deron Williams, and Derrick Rose) are now out of the postseason -- the point is, and has been, making more noise in the playoff scoring column than ever before.

The next point guards on the list are Chauncey Billups and Rajon Rondo. Billups is the mature and effective leader of the erratically entertaining Denver Nuggets, and the player behind coach George Karl's understanding that this particular homegrown point means more to his team than anyone. Rondo, of course, is arguably the most critical point in the league now, as he pushes his defending champion Boston Celtics with energy, versatility, will and weekly triple-double digits.

Rondo is averaging 18.3 while Billups is a shade higher at 19.6.

So what? Well, the last point guard to average an exact 19.6 points throughout the playoffs was Jason Kidd. That was in 2002. And he led ALL point guards in scoring that year. Guess how many other points averaged more than 14.7 ppg in Kidd's calling?

Two. The previously mentioned Parker with 15.5, and Darrell Armstrong with 15.3.

Since 2002, at least five point guards have scored at least 14.3 ppg each year in the playoffs, with an average of just under seven players hitting that rate each postseason. Stephon Marbury led the way in 2003 and 2004, with more than a 21 point mean in each of those years, while Steve Nash took over the top spot in 2005 with just under 24 points per contest. Nash was ahead of seven other points during that period, all who scored more than 16 a night. Marbury's mark of 22 ppg in 2003 began a 20+ point production streak by the PG leader. Gilbert Arenas scored a ludicrous 34 a game in 2006 -- albeit in just a few games -- almost double the leading PG in 2001 (Damon Stoudamire)!

2008 saw eight point guards in the high scoring column again, leading to this year's revolutionary 12. The others in the current span are Mo Williams, Aaron Brooks, Rodney Stuckey, Mike Bibby, and Jason Terry. (Remember, these are players categorized as point guards -- they do not necessarily bring the ball up more often than some notable teammates, i.e. Williams on LeBron's Cavs or Terry on Kidd's and J.J. Barea's Mavs).

As I write, Aaron Brooks just dropped in points 28, 29, and 30 on the Lakers in his Houston Rockets' mothers' day romp.

So, with the three aforementioned point guards listed from 2002 and just three others the year prior above the 14.3 mark (Stoudamire, Sam Cassell, and Kidd), the point guard role has morphed into more than that of basic ball distributor, and it's happened at four times the rate. The game today is being led by plentiful point producers, or by lead guards, as some may now refer to them.

And why not? May as well put five out on the floor that can score; seeing how the game is now guard dominated with pace, penetration opportunities, and 3-point emphasis, it's no surprise. Further, the popularity and exposure of basketball at a young age, with year-round playing, AAU, and potentially ridiculous profits, has helped more prospects with guard-like physiques develop. Competition at the guard slot has produced a greater number of smaller and younger players that can flat out score and do everything else required of the extenstion-of-the-coach role.

Depending on who one talks to and what the situation is, Kobe, LeBron, and Dwyane Wade could be considered point guards in their specific offensive systems. The lesson from the pros: keep the ball in the hands of the scorer. If he is able to dribble the ball up the court under pressure, set-up, survey for open teammates, drive to the hole, pull up, and operate out of the pick-and-roll, it all makes sense.

As explained to me by one NBA executive, "Teams are terrified of turnovers, so do everything possible to limit passing."

Point pondered.

When It All Comes Together

Cohesion, coaching, feel, focus, and talent. It all came together in the Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Final, which I was finally able to catch on NBCOlympics.com. The USA and Spain were quite effective on offense as players from both teams were often able to create penetration opportunities via dribble drives or entry passes. Spain actually attempted 20 more 2-point field goals than the US. Spain made an effort to use pick-and-rolls to open up the floor and pound the ball into the Gasols while the Spanish zone forced (or allowed, depending on interpretation) the US to take 28 3-pointers (of which the Americans hit 13). In sum, though, the effective field goal percentages, which adjust for the fact that a 3 is worth one more point than a 2, tell the story with Team USA converting at a rate of 70% on 65 attempts to Spain’s 57% on 74 shots. A look at the true shooting percentages, which integrate free throws, also supports the outcome: US 73% to Spain 62%.

The teams executed their game plans and only committed a combined 27 turnovers. Whereas the US often relied on game flow predicated on spreading the floor, 4 out-1 in situations, and transition scoring, Team Spain used its pick-and-roll game, hi-low action, and inside presence to generate a balance of scoring opportunities. Team USA ran two dozen pick-and-rolls to start its half court plays, often with Chris Bosh initiating the action. The couple of times that Bosh and Dwight Howard slipped their screens, they were found in the paint for a 2-point conversion or a Spanish foul.

Though it only scored directly on five of those P&R’s, the Americans were able to move the ball or penetrate for lay-ups or wide-open kick outs. Spain had a hard time containing the driving abilities and passing of its opponent, although the US was not unbelievable at stopping Spain’s attack either. Time and time again, Spain was able to blitz through checkpoints, often out of its 1-2 high set that allows the playmaker to come off of a pick at either elbow. As the US failed to close down those areas, Spain moved the ball and capitalized on poor rotations and slow defensive block slide-downs for 2’s or kick-outs for 3’s. The US did, however, make an effort to contest shots, and even when Spain scored, Coach Mike D’Anotoni’s lightning fast outlets off of makes put the US at an advantage.

Dwyane Wade, as usual, was spectacular throughout with a PaP of 40.4 (for those familiar with John Hollinger’s Game Score, Wade’s was 22.4, 8 points higher than Kobe’s). Wade went right at the rim when he first touched the ball in the first quarter, steadily opened up his game with four 3-pointers, and produced breakaways with sleek steals. Kobe took over in the fourth and demonstrated to the world his killer instinct that has so often been discussed (PaP 24.5, GmSc14.2). Chris Paul also went to work and demonstrated why his versatility was so important for his team’s fortunes (PaP 26.3, GmSc 11.8).

Other observations:

Although used sparingly, Tayshaun Prince utilized his eight minutes in the final game and made significant plays (PaP 34.5).

Interesting how Carmelo Anthony really relished the role of spot-up shooter -- he did not have to do much else. He was second on the team to Kobe’s 53 3-point attempts. Melo took 37 3’s during the Games and 27 2’s (don’t think he reached his predicted rebounding goal).

Coach K called two time-outs in the final. After the first one, Spain turned to its zone defense and the US attempted three straight 3-pointers and missed all of them. Fortunately for Team USA, it had Kobe on the floor, and in attack mode, after the second US time-out. He proceeded to drive in for a lay-up, record two assists, and nail a 3.

Despite Wade’s dominance, Kobe’s outstanding team play, and CP13’s steadiness, Lebron James was voted most important USA player on this site’s poll by a wide margin, winning by more than 30 votes. There is no substitute for a 6’8” phenom who can block shots like he is receiving TD passes, power dribble through defenses as if he is a rushing fullback, distribute like a PG, or put on a showy smile with the best of them.

Congrats, Team USA. It was an exciting and inspiring run…

A Look at USA Basketball Productivity

Out of pure curiosity, I calculated performance and productivity ratings (PaP) for individual players on the USA Men’s Basketball Olympic Team through their first six games. The results help evaluate the opinions of visitors who voted on this site’s poll – more importantly, the statistics provide data to support who is “gettin’ it done by goin’ to work” during the Games.

Even the common viewer can postulate that King James is a flat-out star and “Superman” Howard is a beast in the paint. Bosh, as his production shows, has been active and provided stability at both ends of the floor. Besides Bron-Bron, however, nobody has been more multitalented than the man from Miami.

D-Wade has performed like the Energizer bunny on Red Bull, and the ratings demonstrate his versatile play. He has been absolutely everywhere, offensively and defensively and, to the average fan, a heck of a player to be coming off the bench. As many coaches say, though, it’s not who starts – it’s who finishes the game. And in Wade’s case, it’s also what he does every minute he is on the floor.

Here are the ratings for all players who have logged at least 75 minutes. Note that in creating the formula for these ratings, I attempted to attend to the points of emphasis for this USA team, namely defense and rebounding (Coach K priorities), sharing and taking care of the ball, and ability to convert all types of shots: free throws, 2-point field goals and 3-point field goals.

Interestingly, the top five are a solid squad, especially if we think of a more typical lineup with two bigs, two wings, and a point, rather than the 4-out, 1-in trend.

Wade-ing Through Beijing

What Dwyane Wade is doing is impressive – maybe not as ridiculously captivating as Michael Phelps, but surely worth watching. In fact, Wade personally reports the swimmer’s success.

Two players stuck out to me in the game against Greece: the high-flying, energetic, versatile Lebron James and the energizer, slasher, defensive guru, D-Wade. The word is he isn’t known for defense in Miami, but don’t tell him that (actually, Craig Sager did, and Wade seemed surprised). His perimeter aggressiveness and execution has been phenomenal, especially against the Greeks who constantly run pick and rolls, back cuts, and ball reversals. Coach Musselman agrees.

Wade is motivated and focused and plays with something to prove. He didn’t like playing third wheel to King James and NCAA champion Carmelo Anthony when they all entered the league. Now, he is coming back from injury and has his sights set on returning to the status that earned him an NBA Finals MVP. I’ve always loved his game and have much respect for him as a player, leader, and teammate. He accepts his role and then performs admirably. (He did miss a free throw box out of the shooter when he first entered the game but then made up for it with a spectacular steal and no-look lob pass to Kobe Bryant for a dunk).

The USA team showed that if it can share the ball (23 assists on 36 field goals) and force turnovers (25 attributed to the opponent) to enable transition scoring, then it may not need to convert free throws (albeit 23 attempts), shoot over 40% from the three (7-20), or out-rebound the other team (38 each).