Showing posts with label sweet sixteen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sweet sixteen. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Bball Brief: Believe in Experience

Do you think the Cornell players ever saw this Pistol Pete video? Perhaps not, but they're busy compiling their own psychology of shooting clips.


They certainly have the conceptualization, concentration, and confidence when shooting the ball (57.1 effective field goal percentage). According to kenpom.com, only Denver (57.9) and Syracuse (57.8) have a higher eFG rating.

And, with all of its senior contributors, the Big Red stands out amongst its peers in experience. In fact, just about all of the mid major NCAA tournament teams that won first round games are more senior laden than the advancing powerhouses (not really a surprise when one considers the number of underclassmen from major schools who leave early; however, still worth noting a meaningful reason for the lesser known teams that win). Old Dominion, which recently lost to Baylor after taking down the veteran Notre Dame ship (3rd in NCAA experience) has but one go-to senior, yet five crucial juniors.

Cornell ranks eighth in experience in the nation and gets important production from seven at the top of their class -- including a point guard who has been a kenpom.com "go-to" since his freshman season and a transfer forward from Kentucky that provides power off the bench. The smarties from Ithaca boast a 7-footer and five players that shoot better than 43 percent from 3-point range. Plus, it's all been in the making for the last few years. Same coach. Same system.

The mid majors that advanced to the second round sported 18 senior contributors, double what teams had from the major conferences. From the historically top teams, only Tennessee has more than two contributing seniors. And only Syracuse and Duke have two. (Wisconsin had two as well before Cornell convincingly ended their run). Kansas was beaten by a Northern Iowa squad that parades three standout seniors. Meanwhile, New Mexico was just taken down by a traditional power team in Washington that edges the Lobos only by the slimmest of margins in experience.

Interesting to think about. Here are the sweet sixteen match-ups. Teams in bold are "favorites" to win while teams listed on the left are kenpom.com predicted winners. Average experience is listed for each team.

West Virginia 1.79 -- Washington 1.52
Duke 2.00 -- Purdue 1.83
Northern Iowa 1.96 -- Michigan St. 1.61
Ohio St. 2.00 -- Tennessee 1.92
Kentucky 0.84 -- Cornell 2.50
Syracuse 1.70 -- Butler 1.70
Kansas St. 1.71 -- Xavier 1.47
Baylor 1.73 -- St. Mary's 1.53

In all cases but one, experience trumps. And that contest features the youngest against the oldest ... two teams that are 9th and 10th in offensive efficiency (Cornell is a tad better) but worlds apart in defensive efficiency over the long term. The Wildcats are No. 8 in that category versus the Big Red's 131st ranking. But, that is why there is a tournament ... and maybe Cornell will continue to demonstrate how maturity correlates with domination as it did in the first two rounds and practically all season. From The Red Majority:
With an offense so explosive and efficient that it averaged nearly a point and a half per possession, Cornell laid down a wide swath of total basketball destruction.
We'll see if talented experience can battle experienced talent.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Advancing with Confidence

Davidson's head men's basketball coach Bob McKillop was quoted in the New York Times this past weekend with an appreciative simile that coaches and sport psychologists are bound to savor. "Confidence is very fragile. It's like glass. When it drops it can break into a lot of pieces."

Fortunately for McKillop and his hoopin' Wildcats, the only traces of anything shattered were the hearts of the highly favored Hoyas from Georgetown and the attempted defensive schemes of Gonzaga. When it came down to shutting down Davidson, opponents were left with fragments of glass in themselves. Everyone knows that Stephen Curry dropped 70 in two games, but what about how his teammates handled the pressure? Try these numbers: 18 assists and 14 turnovers in the first round and then, against one of the nation's top defenses, 10 dimes and only 5 TOs! Five! In fact, in round two, Davidson created 16 more field goal attempts for itself via valued possessions and offensive boards.

Most importantly, though, the team looked and played confidently. And the red-hot Curry was the five-star spice. In the same article, McKillop went on to say that sometimes during the year his team was "more plastic" and "didn't break into pieces." Well, they now resemble hints of armor and will need their newly-created coating as they head into the round of 16 to face yet another highly rated defensive team in Wisconsin.

Confidence can come in waves. As Davidson discovered, there was a splendid splash of it in North Carolina over the weekend. The team didn't drown in the 17-point deficit against Georgetown. Somehow, as all solid teams do, it managed to play each possession and create opportunities. The physical action influenced the psychological play, and shifted the momentum. But it was the mental stability to stay with the game plan that allowed the plays to manifest.

Confidence is critical for the 16 teams left, and the further away from fragile they are the more likely they are to advance. Easier said than...well...thought.

Doc's order of favorites, based on the weekend's performances, from armor to plastic:

North Carolina - a well-balanced diet
Kansas - hungry and fast munchin' 'hawks
Louisville - Pitino's pieces are sweet
West Virginia - out to prove they aren't crumbs
Michigan State - well prepped Spartans
Washington State - structured meal
Wisconsin - a foundation too good to pass up
Davidson - upgrade the dishes from plastic
...other tastes...
Texas
Memphis
Tennessee
Xavier
UCLA
Villanova
Western Kentucky
Stanford

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