Championship Conundrums

10 Reactions from the NCAA Final...
(In no particular order except that which I ponder).

1. Dome Shooting -- For all the talk of misfiring from long range in an expansive venue, Michigan and Louisville made one wonder, "What's the big fuss?" ... They shot .444 and .500 from 3-point range, respectively, and canned a combined 53 of 109 field goals (49 percent). Free throws? 36 for 48 (75 percent). The 3-point makes were mustered in large part by the Spike and Hancock Show whose dazzling display resulted in 9 of 10 conversions. The semi-final games saw no team shoot better than 36 percent from 3. Looks like it just took a game to get used to the background.
2. The Double Dribble -- With 9:41 in the first half, Gorgui Dieng jumped as he tried to catch a hard-to-handle pass on the right wing. As he attempted to control the ball -- and his body -- he took one dribble to regain balance. He paused and surveyed the court, then continued to attack with another dribble. The whistle actually blew and the official made the right call: Double Dribble. Why was that significant? Because it's often a blown call, as if a long pause between a perceived "gather" dribble and a "control" dribble forces a ref to omit the initial dribble from his memory. If a player is able to effectively steer the ball enough to dribble and gather, then, in effect, he's in control of the ball, and in the same effect, it's not a gather anyway, but a controlled substance. Correct.
3. The Elevated Court -- I don't like it because it's potentially dangerous. I like it because it portrays a stage. I don't like it because it forces the head coach to sit with bad posture on a poorly placed stool. I like it because it provides the players and coaches on the bench an extra few feet to jump up and down (if they choose to rise onto the court). I don't like it because the head coach is quite far from his staff. I like it because the head coach is quite from from his staff.
4. Add Another Official Official -- There are three officials in the crew. They work hard. The refs who get the championship game are presumably the best the NCAA has to offer. However, fans, analysts, and viewers are often disgruntled by what they deem as poor officiating. Cases in point on Monday: The missed goal tend, the clean Burke block, McGary being undercut, the muggings in the paint. Refs do miss calls. All the time. The game is fast and physical and the players for whom they are responsible for keeping in line are better athletes in better shape, and they are often bigger and taller -- officials can get lost in the action. Bottom line: It's really hard to ref. Fine. So make it a little easier by adding a fourth ref to the crew who isn't obligated to run back and forth while trying to stay off the playing surface, avoid tripping over fans or coaches, and still working to get an angle for everything his eyes should see. Television offers another (often superior) view and one that (often) makes calls quite obvious even during live action. Put a ref in a protective bubble on the sideline with a monitor and miked whistle.
5. The Crowd -- Unbelievable. I didn't have my television's sound blasting nor was I using the surround sound. Either the dome made it seem louder in there, the audio broadcast was better than years' past, or that was the most cacophonous crowd I can recall in a championship game (played in a dome). Exhilarating.
6. Two Fouls -- To play or not to play? That is the question. And the gamble. And the most talked about dilemma. Burke picked up two in the first half. He sat for 12 minutes. Beilein was blasted for sitting him. Blasphemy. There are three types of people: Those who have coached, those who haven't, and those who think they should because they think they can do it better. Cool for the first two. Playing a key guy with two fouls in a close game when it's quite obvious he'll be needed for most of the second half is dependent on a) who the player is b) his position c) the game situation d) the rest of the team e) the scout f) the dome, the court, the officials, the crowd ... ARGH! Too many factors, and easy to contest one way or the other in hindsight. Do you want him to be there in the end or not? Burke ended the game with four fouls.
7. Shot Fakes -- Learn them, and learn how to defend them. Luke Hancock has a terrific one. Defenders that close out on him don't. If they did, they'd know to fly at his right side so he is forced to dribble with his left hand. He loves to bounce off the right dribble and stabilize from his right. Push him the other way so he can't release his shot and so he is persuaded to pass with his left hand. He made two key plays after shot fakes. One was an assist to Russ Smith (who nailed a 3) after he was able to pound dribble right into the paint. The other was the foul he drew on McGary. Meanwhile, with 1:20 remaining in the game, Robinson III missed an opportunity to draw a foul on a 3-point attempt because he took a backstep with his right foot on the kickout catch -- he lost a precious second and critical stability. Rather than taking the shot with his defender flying at him, he wasted time with additional movement and brought Michigan within four points rather than three with just two free throws in one possession.
8. The Game is Won in the Paint -- That's why there is a 3-second rule (credit Kenny Smith for the reminder). Louisville shot 45 2-pointers (versus 30). The Cards grabbed 15 offensive rebounds (versus 8). The winners blocked 3 shots (versus 2).
9. Resiliency -- Teams who win have this.
10. Pitino is a Hall of Famer -- No matter what you say, it's hard to have a better week in his profession. Besides the HOF induction Monday morning, he won his second NCAA Championship that night only after taking the Cardinals to the Final Four for the second year in a row. He's now won as many games as John Wooden. His horse, Goldencents, won the Santa Anita Derby (down the street from Caltech) on Saturday and qualified for the Kentucky Derby; his son, Richard, won the University of Minnesota job (northwest of Florida) on Friday and qualified for the Big Ten.
11. BONUS -- Dan Dakich talked about how impressed and mesmerized he was by Pitino at Five Star Basketball Camp when Dakich was a camper, some three decades ago. Pitino was like nothing anyone had ever seen -- he beat Chris Mullin and other high school studs 1 on 1, again and again. I heard a similar story years ago at a camp in Boston. Pitino challenged the best kids in camp ... the coach on defense, the camper at the top of the key with the ball. Pitino ordered the kid: "Go by me!" The kid started to move and Pitino ripped him of the ball. Again and again.
12. BONUS BONUS -- Tim Hardaway, Jr. commented in the post-game presser about the ways in which Beilein provides "overlooked" kids opportunities to play for Michigan: "He really recruits guys that wanted to go to those big-time schools and never had a chance to get looked at by those big-time schools."

The Final Four: What's to Like

We become fans of sports franchises and programs for a variety of reasons, and most of the time, either logically or illogically, the symbiosis has to do with how we identify with the team. Basic reasons: Our hometown; a role model; our father’s team. More psychologically complex reasons: Aesthetics, like uniform color or shoe contract; playing style and tempo; or the team is playing against one we (logically or illogically) despise. Any and all reasons seem enough impetus to rationalize rooting for a particular franchise. Whether or not our friends support the fandom, well, that’s ultimately up in the explanation. Typically, if one can support a claim (in 7-degrees or less fashion) then peers will outwardly accept accompanying fan behavior. In sum, a solid argument dissuades the accusation: “You jumped on the bandwagon.” I’m not on any team’s bandwagon -- though the last one I saw rolling down the street had a big FGCU on it en route to USC -- but there are reasons to like every team in the Final Four. 

Louisville

I moved to Boston to pursue graduate degrees in 1998, just a year after Rick Pitino became the head coach of the Celtics. I bought his book and I watched his talk show every weekend. My grad school advisor became the team’s consulting sport psychologist. And to top it off, I was at BU, where Pitino started his career as a head coach. It was more so that I became a Pitino fan (via his convincing), I suppose, than a Celtics fan. (Antoine shook a lot, Pierce was not yet mature, and McCarty was a great guy.) Pitino yearned for the Celtics to play like his Kentucky Wildcats. They tried. But Pitino spoke of advanced stats, needing 30 deflections a game to win, explaining in fine detail the ins and outs of every possession, and emitted an all-out tone that said this, my friends and fans, is the new breed. Accept it because certain people aren’t walking through that (figurative) door. He has since honed his craft back in the college ranks. (Can it really be true he’s been at Louisville since 2001?!)

The Cardinals have lightning quick guards, an intrepid mojo, and they were just here last year. Russ Smith is as fearless as they come -- and he finishes plays. According to kenpom.com analytics, he is the player of the year. Louisville is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency -- No. 2 in opponent TO% and No. 2 in steals. Though only No. 6 -- ha, only! -- in offensive efficiency, it’s No. 16 in O-board%. Opponents O-board%? A laughable 33.2 percent (No. 236). And 3-pointers, considering how much emphasis Pitino has put on the long ball during his career? Not a factor. 32.8% (No. 223). But it doesn’t matter. The Cardinals thrive with their defense: A full-court, uptempo orchestration of controlled havoc that results in easy points created by defensive efforts.

Veteran coach. Experience and energy galore.

Wichita State

My great friend I met at BU left Boston after completion of his master’s degree. He went back to his hometown, Minneapolis, to pursue a doctorate in psychology. From there, he went to Memphis for a postdoc, then to Dallas for a related job. And after several years there, to Wichita where he was involved in sport psych and family consulting. Strong connection? Not necessarily, but when coupled with the fact that one of my assistant coaches has a cousin who is a Shocker -- Malcolm Armstead -- it makes it all the more substantial. How can I not root for the underdog, upstart squad that has a family member I know? America’s team!

The Shockers rebound, defend, and block shots. 38 percent O-board rate (No. 18) vs. 26.3% (No. 11) for opponents. They have a block percentage of 13.7 (No. 18). Most importantly, they also play with no fear. Armstead play-makes and loves to shoot. For every questionable shot, he’ll make you pay with a few conversions in a row. And Carl Hall may as well be Carl Wall -- you’re not going to score with him in the vicinity.

They’re coming after you and don’t care how many teams you’ve coached.

Michigan

Ah, finally, a John Beilein Final Four. I’ve been rooting for him since I started studying his offense. And that began when he was at West Virginia -- yes, my father’s alma mater! -- and coached the heck out of a Pittsnogled group. Lots of 3’s, exciting spurts of scoring, a solid man defense and an opposition-frustrating 1-3-1 zone. Plus, he was at LeMoyne prior to that, up there in New York State. I wasn’t that far, down in Albany. It just all makes sense. My question had been: Can this offense make it all the way? It’s quite spread out and had been easy to guard at times. Inconsistent offensive rebounding and shooters camped out around the perimeter didn’t necessarily put undeniable pressure on the defense. But it helps when you have players and the named player of the year. Trey Burke is surrounded by a horde of NBA sons. (How does that happen?) Recruiting, belief, and some luck.

The Wolverines have the No. 1 offense in the nation; it’s cushioned by their reliability to not turn the ball over. When they do, it’s just 14.5 percent of the time (No. 1). They shoot the lights out from the field (54.6 eFG% No. 11). Who cares if they don’t get to the free throw line (No. 338) and let their opponents live there (22.3 FT rate, No. 1)?! They value their possessions and makes them count, plus create stops with a high steal rate of 8.1% (No. 24). Burke is as good as advertised and can take over a game. Beilein isn’t afraid -- rather, he wants -- to keep the ball in Burke’s hands and continue to run the offense through him. With strong performances from big man Mitch McGary and superb shooting from Nick Stauskas, it’s been working out.

They’re just fun to watch.

Syracuse

“The ‘Cuse.” When I moved to Albany in 1989 that’s what I kept hearing; after all, everyone was an Orangemen fan. With that Sherm, Seikaly, Coleman combination, it was ingrained in the upstate NY culture. Everyone in the area went to Siena basketball camp but the few who could make it to Syracuse did. So, big identification and the talk of the town.

What do they do now? It’s been similar throughout; something referred to as a 2-3 zone, but that’s just a default name because nobody has a better one -- it’s much more than that. It’s an octopus on steroids. Too many arms to count. With Syracuse players’ length (the second tallest team in the nation) and athleticism, it’ll suffocate you. It’s scary good.

Teams in the postseason just can’t score against it. A critical part of the problem is they can’t prepare for it either. The Orange boast the No. 6 defense by being No. 4 in eFG%, No. 3 in 3-pt%, and No. 1 in block%, defensively. Keep in mind that Syracuse lost to Georgetown twice in the regular season and another team it could end up facing on Monday: Louisville. But the Orange are clicking. Boeheim even admitted he hasn’t had a better defensive team than this one. Despite a lower eFG% (just 49.1, No. 139), the team makes up for misses with a 39.0 O-board rate (No. 8).

Scary good. Plus, the senior Brandon Triche, whose uncle Howard was on the ‘Cuse team with the trio mentioned above, has played in every single game of his collegiate career. That’s 146 games.

I’m a fan.

Winning the Madness

Just enjoyed a full four days of the 2011 version of Division 1 March Madness. Great games for sure. And fabulous finishes, at least from a fan's perspective. Oh, the feeling of a winning end of a game-ending play ... or, yuck, the losing end of a play gone bad. The closing seconds of many games today, especially the close ones where plays were made for the best -- or not-made for the worst -- got me thinking: better offense or better defense?

(explorations and explanations utilize game box scores and kenpom.com for statistical references)

Sunday's examples:

1) With 5 seconds in the game, Washington was down just a point as it attempted to inbound the ball on its own baseline; however the pass was deflected and the ball stolen by North Carolina. UNC went on to sink two free throws and win by 3. The Huskies never got a great shot off because of the difficulty it had with the inbounds play.

FACTORS: UNC is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency. UW is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency but had 13 total turnovers, only attempted 7 free throws (made all 7), and shot a lower FG% than the Tar Heels (45.8% to 47%). Carolina shot 78% from the stripe but went to the line 23 times.

PRESSURE COOKER: Washington never got a great shot attempt in the end and had trouble scoring in its half court offense throughout, while Carolina did its thing on O and stepped up on D = defense created offense.

2) After being down 15 points midway through the second half, Michigan roared back to challenge Duke. Hardaway, Jr. scored 7 straight to bring the Wolverines to within 1 point with 1:18 left. A Blue Devils offensive rebound off a missed jumper led to an Irving jumper off the glass. Morris scored for Michigan then had to foul Smith with 9 ticks remaining. Smith made the first but missed the second. Morris then missed a running floater in the paint as time expired.

FACTORS: Duke's offensive efficiency is ranked 4th while its defensive efficiency is 3rd. Michigan's OE is 29th. DE is 33rd. Duke grabbed 9 offensive rebounds to Michigan's 4. Duke shot 72% from the free throw line while Michigan shot nearly 91 percent - but the Blue Devils went 25 times compared to 11.

PRESSURE COOKER: Both teams scored to keep it tight, then Duke missed free throw to pave a 3-point victory while Michigan missed good shot in lane -- non-contested -- to send it to OT = better offense sealed outcome, defense set the tone (Duke's perimeter D from the outset clamped down on Michigan's perimeter-minded attack ... the defensive tone was set but who was going to find openings?).

3) After a series of offensive boards and a made free throw by Williams with 2:01 left, Arizona was tied with Texas at 67 a piece. Brown hit a jumper for the Longhorns with 1:07 remaining and then prevented the Wildcats from scoring for another minute. Texas had possession on the baseline after a timeout, up 69-67. All the Longhorns had to do was inbound and take care of the ball, but they were called for 5 seconds. Arizona inbounded and found Williams off a pick and roll, he scored off a strong take and got fouled in the process. He made his free throw. Texas got a final layup off but it missed.

FACTORS: Arizona is ranked 18th in offensive efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage. Texas is 21st in OE and 4th in DE -- with a ranking of 5 on defensive eFG%. Zona shot 8 of 14 from 3-point range (57.1%) and had 2 more offensive boards than Texas.

PRESSURE COOKER: Wildcat defense stopped Longhorn inbounds play -> big time; Wildcat offense scored on Longhorn defense = defense allowed offense to be created.

4) With the scored knotted at 59 each, Syracuse had control on its own sideline but a miscue with its inbounds pass gave the ball away. Marquette regained possession and made the most of it by nailing a 3-pointer with 27 seconds left. The 'Cuse missed a 3 and Marquette sealed the game with four free throws.

FACTORS: Syracuse (no. 3 seed), statistically, is a better team, but on this night 11th seeded Marquette made 19 of 23 free throws (compared to 5 of 7 from the Orange). The Golden Eagles grabbed 11 O-boards to the Orange's 4. Syracuse had 18 turnovers. Marquette beat Syracuse earlier this season, too.

PRESSURE COOKER: Marquette got after it and created opportunities with rebounds and steals. Syracuse shot 55.3% from the field but other than that, it lost in every other offensive category = defense created offense ... and offense created offense for Marquette.

It's a hodgepodge of plays and stats and ranks. What is influential is how the climactic plays in three games, the ones that swayed the outcomes, came from suffocating defense that prevented great offense. UNC's deflection and steal. Arizona's forced 5-second count. Marquette's coerced backcourt violation. What is striking is all of these key turnovers that led to game-sealing points came from inbounds plays.

So, who from these winners has the best chance to win the whole tournament?

If data from the last six years is any indication, then none of them. Not Duke, North Carolina, Arizona or Marquette.

All signs point to THE Ohio State University. OSU is No. 1 in offensive efficiency. It has only lost two games this year, both in conference, and destroyed its two tourney opponents. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in eFG% and No. 7 in turnover percentage. Defensively, they are No. 6 in defensive efficiency and ranked No. 1 in opponent free throw rate. All of this means good luck stopping OSU and good luck scoring on them. Even attempting a foul shot is difficult.

Wisconsin is a slim possibility because of its No. 2 OE and No. 1 TO%.

Duke has an OE at No. 4 and a DE at No. 3.

San Diego State is No. 2 in DE and No. 7 in opponent eFG%.

The overall deciding factor: of the last six D1 NCAA champions, four of them finished the season ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency: Duke (2010), UNC (2009), Florida (2007), and UNC (2005).

The other two years of the previous six? The champion was 2nd in offensive efficiency: Kansas was No. 2 in in 2008; Florida was No. 2 in 2006.

Additionally, the 2008 Jayhawks, though not first in OE, were No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in eFG%.

The 2006 Gators were No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in eFG%.

The last seven NCAA winners finished with an overall rating -- offense and defense factors combined -- of at least No. 2 (FIVE were No. 1 overall).

Lesson: if you are not No. 1 in offensive efficiency, then you better be No. 2. And if you happen to be No. 2, you better have a ranking of at least 5 in another significant category to raise the overall stat. Otherwise, you'll lose ... if you are lucky enough to get to the championship. Of the runners-up in those six years, none had a ranking of 2 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Plenty of 3's and 4's though.

Taking 2004 and 2003 champs into consideration, it looks like the second half of the decade has gone to the teams at the very top of the rating system. Connecticut won in 2004 with an OE ranking of 4, a DE of 5, and an OBoard% of 3 ... so, three categories were a No. 5 ranking or better but none at Nos. 1 or 2.

Prior to that, Syracuse, who was No. 7 overall in kenpom.com rank, won in 2003 with OE at 11 and DE at 19. But the Orange had Carmelo Anthony -- and he must be considered an outlier ...

Bball Brief: Believe in Experience

Do you think the Cornell players ever saw this Pistol Pete video? Perhaps not, but they're busy compiling their own psychology of shooting clips.

They certainly have the conceptualization, concentration, and confidence when shooting the ball (57.1 effective field goal percentage). According to kenpom.com, only Denver (57.9) and Syracuse (57.8) have a higher eFG rating.

And, with all of its senior contributors, the Big Red stands out amongst its peers in experience. In fact, just about all of the mid major NCAA tournament teams that won first round games are more senior laden than the advancing powerhouses (not really a surprise when one considers the number of underclassmen from major schools who leave early; however, still worth noting a meaningful reason for the lesser known teams that win). Old Dominion, which recently lost to Baylor after taking down the veteran Notre Dame ship (3rd in NCAA experience) has but one go-to senior, yet five crucial juniors.

Cornell ranks eighth in experience in the nation and gets important production from seven at the top of their class -- including a point guard who has been a kenpom.com "go-to" since his freshman season and a transfer forward from Kentucky that provides power off the bench. The smarties from Ithaca boast a 7-footer and five players that shoot better than 43 percent from 3-point range. Plus, it's all been in the making for the last few years. Same coach. Same system.

The mid majors that advanced to the second round sported 18 senior contributors, double what teams had from the major conferences. From the historically top teams, only Tennessee has more than two contributing seniors. And only Syracuse and Duke have two. (Wisconsin had two as well before Cornell convincingly ended their run). Kansas was beaten by a Northern Iowa squad that parades three standout seniors. Meanwhile, New Mexico was just taken down by a traditional power team in Washington that edges the Lobos only by the slimmest of margins in experience.

Interesting to think about. Here are the sweet sixteen match-ups. Teams in bold are "favorites" to win while teams listed on the left are kenpom.com predicted winners. Average experience is listed for each team.

West Virginia 1.79 -- Washington 1.52

Duke 2.00 -- Purdue 1.83

Northern Iowa 1.96 -- Michigan St. 1.61

Ohio St. 2.00 -- Tennessee 1.92

Kentucky 0.84 -- Cornell 2.50

Syracuse 1.70 -- Butler 1.70

Kansas St. 1.71 -- Xavier 1.47

Baylor 1.73 -- St. Mary's 1.53

In all cases but one, experience trumps. And that contest features the youngest against the oldest ... two teams that are 9th and 10th in offensive efficiency (Cornell is a tad better) but worlds apart in defensive efficiency over the long term. The Wildcats are No. 8 in that category versus the Big Red's 131st ranking. But, that is why there is a tournament ... and maybe Cornell will continue to demonstrate how maturity correlates with domination as it did in the first two rounds and practically all season. From The Red Majority:

With an offense so explosive and efficient that it averaged nearly a point and a half per possession, Cornell laid down a wide swath of total basketball destruction.

We'll see if talented experience can battle experienced talent.

Mad Breakdown of Stats, Styles, and Coaching Shifts

What happens when you coach a team that finished first in its conference in free throw percentage, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, and rebounding defense?

You get fired. At least, in Kentucky you do...and if the school colors are blue and white.

Perhaps a trip to the Final Four could have saved Billy Gillispie. Though, according to new Wildcats coach John Calipari, only banners will save one from being banished in Lexington. National championship banners.

One could argue that Coach Cal brings with him a coaching style that allowed his Memphis team to finish at the top of Conference USA in field goal percentage defense and just a touch away from the best shooting team in the league (though free throws are not included in that...or 3-pointers). What else did his Tigers boast? Shot blocking, steal making, and rebounding. They were No. 1 in their conference in all of those categories.

Oh, and the Tigers outscored the Wildcats on average by a whole point, 75.1 to 74.1, placing the former third overall in Conference USA. Had the latter averaged the same amount, they would have moved up three ranking slots for fourth in the SEC.

What does all of this mean? Not too much in other years, perhaps, knowing that surprises and underdogs and Cinderellas have appeared in March. But this year, it's apparent there are two aspects of the game that scream consistency: scoring offense and rebounding, and the second is specific to the offensive end. Yes, being able to get stops is important, but not so much as point production (on the court and with the fans). Field goal percentage defense didn't help Gillispie save his job. From what others report, he stopped himself by not being able to impress the community and give the media what it wanted in charisma and personality.

Two of the remaining four teams in March Madness are first in scoring offense in their respective conferences: Michigan State (Big Ten) and North Carolina (ACC). Connecticut (Big East) is second, behind Syracuse, though the Huskies are ranked No. 1 in both Pomeroy and Massey ratings. Villanova, in this case of scoring power, goes from its own version of Wildcat to Tame-dog. It is sixth in Big East offense.

How important is being able to pound the boards? Extremely. The most important. Maybe even a stat that could have saved Gillispie. His 'Cats finished second in rebounding margin in league, but eighth in rebounding offense. Yikes. That is highway miles away from what his predecessor's Tigers accomplished. Memphis was No. 1.

What other teams finished first in cleaning their conference offensive glass? Michigan State, UConn, and UNC. Poor 'Nova was sixth. Majority wins though. Pounding and planting in the paint leads to more offensive attempts and more scoring. Maybe the Spartans aren't pretty to watch in a lay person's basketball mind, but they produce 71.8 points per game to lead the league, much to do with their No. 1 rebounding margin.

Who accumulated the same amount of points as Michigan State in the ACC this year? Maryland, which finished ninth in the conference in that stat. That shows why UNC is so extraordinary. Its pace is much quicker than any other team, demonstrated by the Tar Heels 90 points per game output. To know that they also have the fifth overall best assist to turnover ratio in the nation, one that is tops in the ACC, is something to note. No sooner did they demolish Oklahoma than did they realize they could play a much slower pace -- and still get the stops and scoring they needed to put the Big 12 foes in their own tar.

When one talks of balance and talent, its UNC. Right there with Carolina -- in Detroit -- is UConn. The Huskies have it all. The best scoring margin and rebounding offense in the ultra-competitive Big East, 80.2 points per game, and the best shot blocking in the country. It will be quite a challenge for the Spartans to stop the Huskies in their tracks and the Wildcats to stomp the 'Heels. But that is why they play the games...and Final Four hopefuls watch from home, and in some instances, a new one.

Plummeting Minutes, Enthusiastic until the End

It’s the second half and the players just walked out of the 16:00 time out. Duke is down to Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen, 38-26. Greg Paulus, after not playing in the first half, is in. He immediately drains a three. Next time down, while setting up a play, the senior guard drives to the left sideline in order to produce a jump skip pass to an open Kyle Singler, who bangs another trifecta. A Duke stop and a crisp pass to Scheyer off a baseline screen opens up another one from behind the arc. And then, off a catch and square on the right wing, he punctuates the Blue Devil run with a stop and go elbow jumper. Duke spurt, TO Nova.

All of that happened on Thursday in Boston…except, almost all of it. What was true was the first shot Paulus hit. And the TO, though it was Duke who called it. Paulus actually threw the skip pass out of bounds, miscued on the pass to Scheyer which left the ball short and not in shooting position, and was stripped on the next possession.

For some reason, though, I found myself rooting for the lost Paulus, and for the Duke program to generate another miracle comeback. It’s had plenty, but, like a movie that continues to build for that Oscar climax, I was hoping -- if for only a 4-minute sensational span cued by the former starting court leader -- until the next break in action.

Actually, the TO that Paulus himself called came on an order of his mentor, the one who decided to confine him to the pine. Now, we don’t really know what it’s like day in and day out in the program. Or if Paulus remained coachable and was a programmed citizen in practice. We can only go by what we see, what quotes we read, and the reasons the coaches give. It seems the senior captain who started for three consecutive years and scored more than 1,000 points while shooting just under 40 percent from 3-point range for his career was outplayed in his final season as a Duke baller (perhaps he’ll become the next serious assistant?). He couldn’t do the things that were needed. He didn’t have the length or the athleticism or the penetration ability or the defensive lockdown skill.

But, it appears, he did understand the system – and, he bleeds white and blue. In the form of Wojo. Collins. Dawkins. Another in the list of highly aggressive, slap-the-floor, swearing point guards who went on to coach. As his minutes dwindled, time became scarce, and his fading career turned into a double-digit loss in a half-as-happy season. I know that he reluctantly tasted his role and hesitantly gulped the tragedy that was his to become. Just watching him on the court Thursday evening, attempting to lead, it was apparent that he was out of sync. He was trying to stay within himself, but it looked as if he wanted to explode and let loose a season of frustration.

Despite the newly obligatory position, he was still the one crouched next to the coaches on the bench, and remained the exuberant teammate that stood up to slap five to his substituted playing peers. He maintained the fireball of energy that allowed him to rumble in and out of the backcourt in Cameron Indoor Stadium -- and the QB pocket in high school. If anyone is looking for an image of a competitor and a developing leader, by the looks of Paulus on TV and in the paper, he is it. Congratulations to him on, what is becoming more less likely for a consistent starter in college basketball, the closing of a 4-year career. He dealt with a difficult personal situation, but stuck with it and gave it his all in his last game.

Impressions of Mad Basketball

March Madness began again, and depending on one’s interpretation, the forms of the madness were many. Here we take various definitions and break them down:

A state of mental illness, presumably temporary – Ameer Ali’s flagrant flip of Blake Griffin. He did his best to imitate a WWF move, though Blake was wary of his own reaction. It almost appeared that the Griffin beast was subduing himself post-takedown, like he knew what he was getting into.

Ever notice how Blake gets into bits of entanglement and possible scuffles? There is a reason, though contorted and borderline insane, that an opposing player may rack someone in the (Bill Raftery) onions. I suppose Griffin is used to situations like that since nobody can stop him and he aggravates defenders beyond belief. I see a bit of Rodman in him – ferocious and frustration generating – mixed with Lebron – mightily skilled and unyielding at the hint of resistance. His breakaway dunk on Saturday? Look out below, and watch out for onions…

A feeling of intense anger – Western Kentucky coach Ken McDonald after his unnoticed or ungranted attempt to call at T.O. in the last second of the game against Gonzaga. He was glaringly perturbed, as we saw from his mouthing of that is “B-S!” while pointing at the ref who failed to acknowledge his plead.

Unrestrained excitement – The outcome of the Gonzaga lay-in made one of the Bulldog players’ quite enthused. His plyometric-like two feet bounding exercise that caused his knees to come all the way up to his ears – about 10 times in a row – was astounding. He had to have been sore the next day. Well deserved though, for sure. I believe a Siena player mirrored the same image, in just about the same area on the sideline. Perhaps a Saint was watching over that spot?

How about the final games of each night? Like the basketball world was waiting for excitement to build all at the same time… on Friday, the first O.T. game of the tourney coupled with another one, and, of course, a second extra period in the first Siena game where “we want Moore” nailed the two crucial 3-pointers that had Albany rocking.

Extra anger and frustration – this from the viewer’s perspective. Why can’t CBS try to figure out how to stagger starts of games so that when there are three or four games ending all in unison – and each is fewer than a 5-point margin – that we are able to watch them all in full? Would that not increase the viewing pleasure and ratings rather than having to open two laptops to access the free Madness package online? Or get out the iPhone app and hold a close game in one’s palm? Argh.

Overflowing with eagerness – getting to see North Dakota State’s Woodside go toe-to-toe with Kansas’ Collins. Talk about a shootout. And a fundamentally expert one at that. Yes, they can both catch-and-score, but their individual moves and the way each of them draws attention from the D is fascinating. Tight inside-outs, stop-and-go’s, crossovers, and the ability to finish. Woodside had 37 on 13-of-23 shots. Collins was 12-for-26 for 32 points. Though the latter finished with 8 dimes and only 2 TO’s… plus a big man who made up for any miscues – the same center who managed a rare tournament triple-double two days later, with 10 blocks mind you.

Maybe many were not, but I was intrigued by the Syracuse-Arizona State game, a contest that featured two zone defenses. One that is a traditional 2-3 and a Boeheim staple. Another that is a Sendek standard, an aggressive matchup – one that looks like man-to-man at times. Who said a game with a slower pace wouldn’t feature scoring? The final was 78-67 and five Orangemen reached double figures. And how about Boeheim's backing of Sendek's N.C. State release?

“I thought somebody was pretty stupid and somebody was pretty smart,” Boeheim said. “I’m not going to mention which one.”

Speaking of being mad, did James Harden’s stock sink in three days? If scouts are looking at scoring, then yes. He had 10 points in the biggest game of his career, and six of them came from the charity stripe. The game before, versus Temple, produced practically the same stat line, with a 1-point decrement. He averaged 6.5 boards, 4 assists, and 2 steals, but gee. I like his presence and the consistency he creates for his team. If the next level is looking for takeover though, that wasn’t it.

Making madness a mentality – learning about details of individual programs is insightful, like how team identities are created via certain coaches. What may seem unlikely for one team is another’s MO. John Beilein wants to shoot the three – so, that is what they do:

“The most important drill for the Wolverines in practice, not surprisingly, is a 3-point shooting drill. Players take 50 3-pointers in five minutes, and they have to make a certain number to avoid having to run sprints."

Rick Pitino is glued to statistics. The most influential one is the number of deflections his Cardinals create:

“The Cardinals believe success is determined by deflections, a statistic pioneered in part by Pitino. When they reach 35 deflections in a game, they usually win.”

Not sure how many defections they produced against Siena, but it couldn’t have been 35. The Cardinals only generated three steals to the Saints’ eight. And several of the latter teams’ thefts came in that second half span that pulled them ahead. Close call for the Cards, though it was bound to happen with the feistiness and quickness of that caliber backcourt. Look at this seasons’ losing results – a capable Western Kentucky topped them. And Connecticut’s Huskies ran right through their press for a total of 40, yes 40, points in the paint.

Coach K seemed mad with the President’s choosing of the rival Tar Heels, suggesting that there are other matters with which Obama should concern himself… though Coach K did later say he was kidding. If anything, efficiency was the name of Duke in the latest battle against Texas. The Blue Devils shot 50 percent from 3-point range, took 27 free throws, had 8 steals, and only 9 turnovers. The Tar Heels were just behind in those stats even though they play a much faster pace. Who is most economical?

Mad or not, act as if… this from one of the more enlightening articles the past few days. Harvard women’s coach Kathy Delaney-Smith preaches the positive mentality of becoming what you dream, what you imagine yourself being… “Act as if”, she says. It’s a way to believe, to convince oneself to play, to think, to be a certain way…. As if you are champion, a winner, a competitor. She sure is. I had the pleasure of knowing her, coaching her son at camp, and working with one of her players as a performance consultant. It’s nice to know that she worked to get to where she is, that she was driven to learn basketball and figure out how to teach the game to various personalities, and to dedicate her life to education centered around a ball.

The madness continues…

Analysis with the Aces

Just getting back from the third annual Sloan Sports Analytics Conference held at MIT. On the day of the Institute’s men’s basketball team’s historical run into the second round of the DIII NCAA Tournament (more on that later), there was quite a lineup to view inside the intentionally contorted design known as the Stata Center.

For a college basketball coach with an eye for education (and by the looks of the conference list, the sole head coach in attendance), the schedule was quite sensational – a highly anticipated hodgepodge of intellects and athletic aficionados. Always looking beyond basic basketball strategy to fit into personal hoops program philosophy, the panels provided content on psychological research in sport, techniques to utilize statistics that go far beyond basic box scores, and a dearth of hot discussions – many of which were astutely entertaining – from fans’ roles to front office finances to the fortunes of hockey fights.

Jeff Van Gundy mixed in noteworthy, nutty comments with invigorating insight. Marc Cuban played a subdued self, and displayed impressive statistic analytic talk. Daryl Morey paced dialogue with subtle promotion of the Rockets’ reverie. Sonny Vaccaro passionately pleaded for a new look age; specifically, a hopeful time when there is no minimum age limit for NBA players and NCAA student-athletes are able to reap rewards in the form of stipends. Dean Oliver explained, ever so slightly, that everything in basketball is measurable, albeit with enough minds and material. Armond Hill preached the importance of professional leaders and conversed of a commitment to team chemistry – characteristics that allowed the Celtics to clinch last season’s title.

From NBA reporters to ESPN writers to top executives to pro sport’s statistical gurus, this was certainly the place to be for folks searching for numbers and names that go beyond the typical terms we hear and read on a daily basis. The data only substantiated my thoughts about community involvement, competitive practices, group cohesion, creative coaching methods, and countless hours of statistical analysis based on video breakdown and play-by-play. Being crunched into one venue with all of this information and a variety of individuals was very inspiring.

Themes of Teams

It's been quite the unique experience this year -- one that encompassed the completion of a college head coaching season, and the fortune to view another very special program put it all together after years of maturation, sacrifice, and commitment. MIT clinched its first ever NCAA tournament berth with a conference tourney championship today, and I was able to witness the win in person. Knowing what the team has been through and understanding what it took to get to this historical point is extraordinary. Being a part of an exclusive club, one that is dedicated to the highest standards in academics and one that competes on the court, is truly incomparable.

I am very proud to be a piece of that precious moment -- to not only have been through battles alongside the same players, but to also share in the celebration. To have the seniors on the team call me out to the court to cut down a string of net symbolized noteworthy admiration and appreciation. A true team, a group of individuals who epitomize energy, excitement, and work ethic, is what was in Worcester this weekend. Fusion like that does not simply occur. It happens as the result of dedication, discipline, and a distinct understanding of how to maximize every player and coach.

As a spectator, one could recognize the trust and teamwork on the floor. Players were looking for each other, either to drive and kick or help out on defense or recover, box and board... play after play was picturesque from a team standpoint. Although not perfect, there was an overall sense of direction, as if every baller was connected to the same soul. The three seniors commanded competitiveness and underclassmen stepped up in their roles. There was no way the team was to be denied.

Understand that the process was not instant -- it took years of team building and imagining ways to enhance the culture of the program. Unparalleled off season practice, senior leadership, and an unwavering collaborative effort produced a team that otherwise could have been flaky and shaken. Development was apparent and devotion dominated.

Recently, there have been other stories of team building:

Joe Girardi is advanced and aware. He is not afraid to put away the bats and take in some pool.

Kenyon College created a sensational swimming program, one that is both creative and conventional.

The championship run of Trinity College's squash teams is unbelievable -- both in numbers and know how.

In all of these examples, it is shown that a program is in constant construction -- in setting new foundations and constructing stronger ones from what is already solid.

Sometimes, it's amazing how quickly a hired crew can assemble a building -- yet it's more astounding to comprehend the actual time it took to communicate the overall vision and locate the ground to dig.

Cognitive Collapse

Pressure can cause strange reactions. It can cause one to overreact, tighten up, or cloud one’s judgment. Whatever the case, if it’s not addressed with even a brief brain bout, the initial result can turn into an epidemic. Illustration: a championship event. Closing out a basketball game can be difficult on many levels, and Memphis learned that the hard way last night. With 8:50 left in the game, Kansas led 47-46. At the 2:12 mark, Memphis led 60-51 after Rose and company compiled a sizzling span in which the point guard himself scored 10 points. The Tigers looked like they were poised to cement the so-called “dream team” label, but the stability they used to get to that state suddenly vanished.

They gave up an uncontested jumper with 1:56, then threw the ball away as Kansas canned a three. CDR made two free throws, but his team went on to miss four of its next five. He also missed a crucial jumper that would have given Memphis a four-point cushion. Meanwhile, Kansas made two more freebies, another 2-pointer, and the clutch three to tie it with two ticks left. The OT was no contest. Memphis collapsed and Kansas capitalized. Emotions shifted. San Antonio became a swing region, where one party that had made such progress suddenly saw its seasonal development evaporate into the Texas air. A team that appeared confident for so long allowed the intensity of the moment to probe and then plow, forcing regrettable pressure to rise. And then, as Billy Packer gloriously commented (and I actually agreed with him), we witnessed the ability, rather inability, to make shots when pressure was paramount.

What happened to the 38-1 squad during the final, fatal fourth? Strong defense diminished. Heel-playing began. Hope overtook expectation. The mental game became most influential. Panic prevailed. Playing fast and being aggressive worked for Memphis. Slowing pace and having to think did not. For example, when it was shut off from the lane, by virtue of the lockdown man defense that cut off right hands and partly because of the box-and-one, creating shots in the half court became more difficult. The Tigers didn’t have enough re-routing power to combat the clutter. Couple that with a contaminated motor program in the last couple of minutes that prevented a smooth stroke and all Coach Cal was left with was a clowder of cats to be categorized as catastrophic.

The brain needs millions of neurons for a player to shoot and make a free throw. Complex functions occur at blazing rates that make use of all of the lobes and human senses. A plaguing thought or even an abrupt delusion can corrupt the shot, causing negativity, constriction, and, ultimately, misfire. Unfortunately for Memphis, the infection spread swiftly, just as the wings of the Jayhawks extended into "Self"ish history.

Other madness observations

• It took the “premier” college basketball announcer around four game minutes to realize the Jayhawks were in a box-and-one … once he did, he was very proud, repeating the finding a half dozen times.

• Is it me or does Digger Phelps incessantly bully Dicky V.? During the pre-game on ESPN in which the panel of experts was seated adjacent to the water, Bob Knight, in an explanation about officials not calling obvious charges said, “I can take Dick and with one finger I can push him back.”As Knight pressed Vitale’s chest with his index finger, Digger chimed in. “Not far enough … Right in the river, baby! … Say goodnight Dick! … Can you swim?!”
  

• The Stanford women wear black uniforms to intimidate, run the triangle offense, have a 20-point scorer, shoot more than 72 percent from the foul line, and hold teams to 56 points per game at 35 percent field goal shooting. Let’s see if those details work out against the defending national champions who average 78 points per game and have the best player in the women’s game. Should be another great one.

Head Count: Crunching Championship Numbers

The latest line has Memphis favored by two over Kansas in tonight’s NCAA national final. After its convincing win over UCLA on Saturday, the Tigers are poised to add to their history making season with one last victory – a W that would give them their 39th of the campaign. The Kansas Jayhawks, however, will be no pushover after they forced a nation to take notice with their trouncing of North Carolina. The team from the Big 12 demonstrated why its defense is ranked number two in the country with relentless guard pressure and swarming help (ten steals and nine blocks). The Memphis D is almost identical, though the Tigers cause more opponent misses from behind the arc.

In fact, practically all of the other team numbers are similar. Both teams average 80 points per game and hold teams to 61. Kansas has a slightly higher effective field goal percentage due to its ability to hit the three (Memphis actually takes and makes more three’s per contest!) Kansas free throw shooting is right where it needs to be at 70 percent, ten percentage points higher than Memphis (though, again, the Tigers killed it from the charity stripe on Saturday going 20-23, getting to the line more often than the Bruins thanks to its penetrating guard tandem of Douglas-Roberts and Rose).

Both teams are great at taking care of the ball. Memphis only turns it over 17 percent of its possessions, less than twelve times on average – critical considering it plays at a high pace with 70 possessions per game. Kansas is about the same, averaging just one more TO per outing. When it comes to cleaning the glass, both teams are plus seven.

Let’s go deeper. Both teams want to get up and down the floor. They both finish well. Both play great defense. The Tigers have two guys in double figures (CDR is #78 at 17.7 ppg. nationally) while the Jayhawks have four, none of which are ranked in the top 100 although that is a positive stat. Memphis is going to run its dribble-drive-motion (drive, kick, drive, kick, “Rose jump as high as he can and get off a shot,” maybe miss, Dorsey eat the glass, and dunk you very much). Kansas may have the guards that can contain and prevent the DDM with Chalmers and Robinson leading the way (they get more than four steals per game), plus it has a big guard in Brandon Rush to rotate. What could be key is the post players who are waiting in the paint for non-stop penetration – Arthur and Aldrich swatted a total of eight shots on Saturday. Both Kansas and Memphis, with length, athleticism, and sound defenses, are very good at preventing foe foul line visits. Just getting to the line more than 20-25 times is going to be crucial.

Kansas must limit the Rose from blooming, deny CDR, and contest shots in the lane. It must get good shots via its versatile offensive sets that utilize various screening series. Coach Self-“less” play has allowed the Jayhawks to advance with a balanced attack that keeps the opponent guessing. Memphis will have to defend inside and out, and hope that its guards can do damage as they’ve done all year. While crossing Tiger paws that Dozier and Dorsey stay out of foul trouble, creating scoring possessions off of turnovers and maximizing free throw opportunities could give Coach Cal’s team just enough for the title. Let’s hope that Kansas can stay focused for 40 minutes and not have a mental breakdown with poor possessions like it did against UNC midway through. It would be great to see a national title game go down to the last shot. There is no question that both teams want it and have the weapons, but who will play with enough stability to make it happen?

Madness in the Hardwood Mind

And here we are again. Just a memory away, Florida's men were raising their second consecutive trophy after plowing through another field of 64, err, I mean, five. The Division I NCAA basketball tourney is not only a phenomenal competitive collaboration of the best college hoops, but a time that a nation takes part in the fast-paced action, last second heroics, and shining moments. And much of the time, analysts, coaches, players, and even some fans agree that the most mentally focused team will be the one to win its last game of the season.

Yes, I believe in that statement as well. Motivation, concentration, intensity, handling pressure, managing hype - all of these characteristics either impede or invigorate teams. And usually we, as a society, honor the most mentally tough group, the one that makes it through the first weekend unscathed, into the sweetness, and out to the last quad standing. How could that unit not be the most mentally stable? After all, there are so many outstanding teams and so many games throughout the year decided by just one possession. One possession! One block out. One secured loose ball. One cross screen. One inside out dribble. One shot.

Four major contributing factors to W's besides points scored are free throws, rebounds, field goal percentage, and turnovers. Great teams are able to stay at the top in all of these categories. But what about a mental toughness category? Wouldn't it be interesting to rate the psychological profile of a collective hoop group? Performance under pressure: 9. 40 minute focus: 8. High quality head: 10. Maybe the Florida team had a rating of 92. Then a 95 the next year. Was the North Carolina team a 93? UConn a 99? Was the Fab Five of Michigan that lost an 82? Arbitrary numbers, of course, but enthralling to say (or think) the least.

This year, as mentioned, it seems like a dozen teams have a chance at winning it all based on physical prowess, quicks, scoring possessions, coaching, and defensive schemes. But what about the mental factor and being able to absorb and divert pressure, manage emotions, and deal with on- and off-court challenges that only breed ever brewing madness?

Many have chosen Pittsburgh as the squad that will squash all others in the mental arena. Then there are the vets, the coaches and programs who have been there. Will they meet the anxiety and allow it to cook for them? UNC, Duke, UCLA... What about pressure to prove? Memphis, Kansas... Do Johnny or Self finally finish at the front? A Georgia Bulldog on a roll? A Butler opening the door for a new era? The best mid-range player leading the Mountaineers down the lane? Balanced Hoyas? We'll just wait and see. Tomorrow, the hardwood minds meet each other, most importantly themselves.