Random Madness to Wrap your Head Around

No No. 1 seeds this year. And no No. 2 seeds either.

None of the four head coaches with teams in this year's Final Four graduated from Division I institutions. Jim Calhoun played DII at American International College. John Calipari transferred from UNC-Wilmington and played at DII Clarion. Brad Stevens went to DIII DePauw University where he was up for Academic All-America. Shaka Smart played at DIII Kenyon College.

Calhoun is 68 years old. Stevens and Smart are 67 years old, combined.

All of the teams have mascots with four legs.

According to kenpom.com, there is a 58% chance the Wildcats (ranked 4th) will beat the Huskies 70-68 (ranked 11th) ... The Bulldogs (37th) will beat the Rams (50th) 70-68 as well (55% chance).

The Massey Ratings have UConn 4th and Kentucky 5th. Drop to 23rd for Butler and 31st for VCU ... Masseyratings.com says Kentucky is predicted to win 71-69 against UConn (win probability 54%) ... Butler is predicted to win 70-69 against VCU (win probability 52%).

Kenpom.com lists VCU with the highest average experience of the Final Four teams at 2.17 (48th nationally). Butler = 2.02 (76th nationally); Kentucky = 1.16 (312th); UConn = .95 (332nd) ... there are 345 teams ranked ... Kansas was 82nd. Ohio St. was 220th. The tournament team with the most experience was Wofford, ranked 2nd at 2.71.

In possession usage rate, three seniors (point guard Joey Rodriguez, forward Jamie Skeen, and wing Brandon Rozzell) lead the way for VCU. Butler uses junior guard Shelvin Mack as its go-to guy and senior forward Matt Howard as a significant contributor ... Kentucky's freshman big Terrence Jones is its go-to while frosh point guard sensation Brandon Knight leads as a major contributor. UConn's junior combo guard Kemba Walker is the go-to for the Huskies and freshman guard Shabazz Napier is a significant contributor.

VCU wants to set the pace against Butler. The Rams play with the highest tempo of the four and do better with speed. They need to score 70-plus points to win. Butler, on the other hand, doesn't like teams to get that much. Of its nine regular season losses, seven of them occurred when the other team scored 69 or more points.

Kentucky can play fast, too. And it is the best shooting team and best defensive team of the four (effective field goal percentage on offense = 52.7 ... eFG% defense = 44.2).

All four have stood out in full court conversion opportunities and half court execution, with VCU being the most impressive. A team that is so good playing fast isn't always spectacular in the half court (e.g., the Washington Huskies, according to Kenny Smith). The Rams, though, have been able to speed it up and score off makes, misses, and steals AND they can be patient with their sets. They set screens, they enter to the post, they cut hard, and they share the ball. Watch for a spin and immediate backdoor cut with the shot clock winding down ... or a back-to-back pick-and-roll to get off a shot opportunity.

Players to watch:

Hard hat, lunch bucket = Matt Howard

Heat check = Brandon Rozzell

Cool calm = Brandon Knight (and a 4.3 high school GPA to boot)

Game time = Kemba Walker in one game, Shelvin Mack in the other

Calhoun on Walker:

“Right now he's as good of a player in the country, midrange jump shot, he can make threes. To me he's the most valuable player in the United States,” Calhoun said. “So when I recruited him, I thought I was going to get a quick New York City point push guard, defender, all that type of thing. And he's evolved into even more than that.”

Stevens on Mack:

"You have to tell him to take days off," the coach said Monday. "Here is how hard he works and how important I think it is: If we have a time limit on an open practice, we'll stop early so he can get his shots up individually because I know how much it means to him."

Last year, it was all "all mental" for the Kansas Jayhawks. Looks like it was this year, too ... mainly because VCU drained them with everything it had in its own tank.

What does it take to make it this far?

Butler has shown what experience can do. And belief stemming from a team's ability to manage adversity during the season.

Stevens speaks:

“I think the teams that play the best basketball in the tournament are the teams that have a chance to win the tournament,” Stevens said. “It doesn't matter where you're from or how big your football program is or how much money is in your athletic department. It's about a group of kids coming together that five guys play on a court a once hopefully believing together that give you a great shot to compete.

“I think VCU and Butler played with a lot of pressure in January and February,” Stevens said. “When you get into the tournament, that pressure may flip a little bit. We're playing loose, we're playing for the first time in a lot of ways in a couple months where you've already been playing basically where you feel like you can't lose. So you're already used to that.

“So the NCAA tournament is a welcome. I think both teams have played really, really well because of that. Certainly they've got a lot more reasons than that. They are a loaded team that is really well‑coached.”

Calhoun said after the Final Four clinching win that he loves being around this year's team and has thoroughly enjoyed coaching it. His assistant Kevin Ollie says Calhoun is the toughest guy he knows.

Suite101 - "This year's Cinderella team, the No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth Rams, is no fluke. They earned their berth in the Final Four with four impressive offensive performances and a lot of mental toughness."

Boston Herald - "Ambition is in ample supply at Butler. Likewise, physical and mental toughness."

Winning the Madness

Just enjoyed a full four days of the 2011 version of Division 1 March Madness. Great games for sure. And fabulous finishes, at least from a fan's perspective. Oh, the feeling of a winning end of a game-ending play ... or, yuck, the losing end of a play gone bad. The closing seconds of many games today, especially the close ones where plays were made for the best -- or not-made for the worst -- got me thinking: better offense or better defense?

(explorations and explanations utilize game box scores and kenpom.com for statistical references)

Sunday's examples:

1) With 5 seconds in the game, Washington was down just a point as it attempted to inbound the ball on its own baseline; however the pass was deflected and the ball stolen by North Carolina. UNC went on to sink two free throws and win by 3. The Huskies never got a great shot off because of the difficulty it had with the inbounds play.

FACTORS: UNC is ranked 8th in defensive efficiency. UW is ranked 9th in offensive efficiency but had 13 total turnovers, only attempted 7 free throws (made all 7), and shot a lower FG% than the Tar Heels (45.8% to 47%). Carolina shot 78% from the stripe but went to the line 23 times.

PRESSURE COOKER: Washington never got a great shot attempt in the end and had trouble scoring in its half court offense throughout, while Carolina did its thing on O and stepped up on D = defense created offense.

2) After being down 15 points midway through the second half, Michigan roared back to challenge Duke. Hardaway, Jr. scored 7 straight to bring the Wolverines to within 1 point with 1:18 left. A Blue Devils offensive rebound off a missed jumper led to an Irving jumper off the glass. Morris scored for Michigan then had to foul Smith with 9 ticks remaining. Smith made the first but missed the second. Morris then missed a running floater in the paint as time expired.

FACTORS: Duke's offensive efficiency is ranked 4th while its defensive efficiency is 3rd. Michigan's OE is 29th. DE is 33rd. Duke grabbed 9 offensive rebounds to Michigan's 4. Duke shot 72% from the free throw line while Michigan shot nearly 91 percent - but the Blue Devils went 25 times compared to 11.

PRESSURE COOKER: Both teams scored to keep it tight, then Duke missed free throw to pave a 3-point victory while Michigan missed good shot in lane -- non-contested -- to send it to OT = better offense sealed outcome, defense set the tone (Duke's perimeter D from the outset clamped down on Michigan's perimeter-minded attack ... the defensive tone was set but who was going to find openings?).

3) After a series of offensive boards and a made free throw by Williams with 2:01 left, Arizona was tied with Texas at 67 a piece. Brown hit a jumper for the Longhorns with 1:07 remaining and then prevented the Wildcats from scoring for another minute. Texas had possession on the baseline after a timeout, up 69-67. All the Longhorns had to do was inbound and take care of the ball, but they were called for 5 seconds. Arizona inbounded and found Williams off a pick and roll, he scored off a strong take and got fouled in the process. He made his free throw. Texas got a final layup off but it missed.

FACTORS: Arizona is ranked 18th in offensive efficiency, 10th in effective field goal percentage. Texas is 21st in OE and 4th in DE -- with a ranking of 5 on defensive eFG%. Zona shot 8 of 14 from 3-point range (57.1%) and had 2 more offensive boards than Texas.

PRESSURE COOKER: Wildcat defense stopped Longhorn inbounds play -> big time; Wildcat offense scored on Longhorn defense = defense allowed offense to be created.

4) With the scored knotted at 59 each, Syracuse had control on its own sideline but a miscue with its inbounds pass gave the ball away. Marquette regained possession and made the most of it by nailing a 3-pointer with 27 seconds left. The 'Cuse missed a 3 and Marquette sealed the game with four free throws.

FACTORS: Syracuse (no. 3 seed), statistically, is a better team, but on this night 11th seeded Marquette made 19 of 23 free throws (compared to 5 of 7 from the Orange). The Golden Eagles grabbed 11 O-boards to the Orange's 4. Syracuse had 18 turnovers. Marquette beat Syracuse earlier this season, too.

PRESSURE COOKER: Marquette got after it and created opportunities with rebounds and steals. Syracuse shot 55.3% from the field but other than that, it lost in every other offensive category = defense created offense ... and offense created offense for Marquette.

It's a hodgepodge of plays and stats and ranks. What is influential is how the climactic plays in three games, the ones that swayed the outcomes, came from suffocating defense that prevented great offense. UNC's deflection and steal. Arizona's forced 5-second count. Marquette's coerced backcourt violation. What is striking is all of these key turnovers that led to game-sealing points came from inbounds plays.

So, who from these winners has the best chance to win the whole tournament?

If data from the last six years is any indication, then none of them. Not Duke, North Carolina, Arizona or Marquette.

All signs point to THE Ohio State University. OSU is No. 1 in offensive efficiency. It has only lost two games this year, both in conference, and destroyed its two tourney opponents. The Buckeyes are No. 2 in eFG% and No. 7 in turnover percentage. Defensively, they are No. 6 in defensive efficiency and ranked No. 1 in opponent free throw rate. All of this means good luck stopping OSU and good luck scoring on them. Even attempting a foul shot is difficult.

Wisconsin is a slim possibility because of its No. 2 OE and No. 1 TO%.

Duke has an OE at No. 4 and a DE at No. 3.

San Diego State is No. 2 in DE and No. 7 in opponent eFG%.

The overall deciding factor: of the last six D1 NCAA champions, four of them finished the season ranked No. 1 in offensive efficiency: Duke (2010), UNC (2009), Florida (2007), and UNC (2005).

The other two years of the previous six? The champion was 2nd in offensive efficiency: Kansas was No. 2 in in 2008; Florida was No. 2 in 2006.

Additionally, the 2008 Jayhawks, though not first in OE, were No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 5 in eFG%.

The 2006 Gators were No. 5 in defensive efficiency and No. 2 in eFG%.

The last seven NCAA winners finished with an overall rating -- offense and defense factors combined -- of at least No. 2 (FIVE were No. 1 overall).

Lesson: if you are not No. 1 in offensive efficiency, then you better be No. 2. And if you happen to be No. 2, you better have a ranking of at least 5 in another significant category to raise the overall stat. Otherwise, you'll lose ... if you are lucky enough to get to the championship. Of the runners-up in those six years, none had a ranking of 2 in either offensive or defensive efficiency. Plenty of 3's and 4's though.

Taking 2004 and 2003 champs into consideration, it looks like the second half of the decade has gone to the teams at the very top of the rating system. Connecticut won in 2004 with an OE ranking of 4, a DE of 5, and an OBoard% of 3 ... so, three categories were a No. 5 ranking or better but none at Nos. 1 or 2.

Prior to that, Syracuse, who was No. 7 overall in kenpom.com rank, won in 2003 with OE at 11 and DE at 19. But the Orange had Carmelo Anthony -- and he must be considered an outlier ...

The Journey

As one may guess, the last few months have been, well, exciting ... and the last few days have been, well, extremely exhilarating. The journey to Tuesday, February 22 included every possible emotion. I'm grateful to be able to work with so many wonderful people and want to thank all of the supporters of Caltech and the men's basketball program. It's been quite an experience to meet and talk to so many new folks over the last couple of days. What our current program has accomplished in only a couple years is the result of commitment, collaboration, and confidence. To continue to battle day in and day out is the ultimate head game. I couldn't be prouder of our players ... More thoughts to come.

You can follow the story and aftermath on the Caltech Basketball Blog and Facebook Fan Page.

From Somewhere, Arkansas to Springfield, Archetype

Growing up in Oklahoma during the '80s, there was no NBA franchise. Fortunately, we had cable. To double the fortune, our cable package came with WGN, which may as well have stood for What Great News, because that allowed me to be introduced to the Chicago Bulls.

Without a home state team to call my own, the Bulls at least seemed close enough in my mind. And with some kid from North Carolina -- who I distinctly remember a newscaster mentioning could be the next Doctor J -- I thought, "Why not? We (my dad and I) will tune in." Of course, to triple the fortune the Bulls later picked up this other skinny kid in Scottie Pippen, a much lesser known quantity, but from Arkansas, which was close enough to us. After all, I did have a friend who had moved to Oklahoma from there. The team was coming together.

Flash forward more than two decades, six NBA championships, multiple all league teams, and a gold medal later, and I find myself in a radically reminiscent state. Salivating with Michael's every move also meant being informed of his teammates. And the more I watched the Bulls, the more I was moved by Pippen. It was his development that intrigued me. A once fledgling, scrawny, timid athlete that matured into a bonafide, nourished, and all-around star. He battle migraines and Pistons and personal demons. He grew a 'fro and searched for his roots in cornrows and even went Mr. Clean. He dunked on Ewing. Ferociously. And he successfully jabbed at Karl Malone with a memorable line about mailmen not delivering on Sundays. He could do a lot. Glide. Dunk. Drive. And then, all of a sudden he could shoot. He could defend. And then he could do it all. He was everywhere doing everything.

Pippen's induction into the Hall of Fame this weekend forced a visit back to his accomplishments and how he captivated my mind. Below, a Scottie sojourn of sorts and ten reasons he was the man, even alongside Spike Lee's "main man."

1. One of the first stories I recall hearing about Pippen was that he wasn't recruited to be a college basketball player. More, he became the team manager, just a six-foot-two child that would support and look up to the true players as he did his 11 siblings. And what's more, he was so weak that when first asked to take up lifting weights, he couldn't bench press the 45-pound barbell. Here's to becoming strong.
2. Given the chance, he became a regular member of the team at Central Arkansas and averaged 4.3 points per game. He kept getting better, improved his game each year, and by his senior year was a top scorer with 20-plus a contest. A four-year player who learned the power of performance enhancement.
3. Scottie learned to be tough, physically and even more importantly, mentally. His psychological progress as a player plodded along before our eyes. He developed from a wire of an athlete -- one who was able to accept a certain complementary role -- to one who was the best player in the league in 1994 (only to be snubbed out of official MVP honors though he was the All-Star Game MVP). Even after Jordan's first comeback, one which Pip publicly applauded, Scottie continued to prosper and elevate his game. In fact, his Win Shares per 48 minutes in 1996 (.209) and 1997 (.203) were career highs.
4. For those who forget or weren't old enough to observe, Scottie became the leader in 1994. He led his Bulls to a media-surprising 55 wins (Pip played in 72 games that season and the Bulls won in 51 of his appearances). He took them deep into the playoffs. The Eastern Conference Semifinals to be exact. Game 7. Yes, the one people say would have seen the Bulls win if not for a glaring controversial call. Regardless, that season was his personal best with a personal best PER (23.2). And remember he didn't get another chance to direct the Jordan-less team through the post-season again.
5. Players with versatility stand out to me. And Pip provided the Bulls with so much talent he may as well been called Multi Purpose. During the 1994 playoffs, his usage percentage was a lead-leading 31.9 while his regular season effective field goal percentage was above 50 percent, a sound accompaniment to his career best 4.0 steal percentage. And what doesn't appear on paper is how he directed the triangle offense and made his presence felt on defense.
6. To speak even more about his defensive prowess -- a skill the league certainly kept track of to the tune of 10 All-NBA Defensive honors -- just picture a guy that can guard any position on the floor. The popular image is the one of him guarding Magic in the '91 Finals and completely disrupting the Lake Show. But what about post D? Wing stoppage? Just watch the video to appreciate. On-ball steals and passing lane thefts. Blocked shots. Chase down swats (before LeBron was even a teenager). And a defensive coach's dream: taking charges. He understood how to get it down in every was possible manner and relished the role. His steal stats and defensive ratings only provide a brief of glimpse of his mighty brilliance as a defender.
   
   
   
   
7. What else could he do? Everything. And even more, some say, than Mike the Greatest. In David Halberstam's Playing for Keeps, the truth be told ... There was, though, one move Pippen could make that Jordan could not: If they both stood out of bounds under the basket holding the ball and leaped out on the court, Pippen, without ever touching the ground, could slam the ball through with his left hand, and Jordan could not ... I recall Jordan even talking emphatically about how Pippen could jam on people in traffic with his left hand while Michael had trouble executing the move.
8. Even more impressive is a fundamental drill I learned about long ago that highlights Scottie's explosiveness, balance, and length. He was able to pick up a basketball from the court, free throw line distance away from the rim, and dunk it without a dribble. Immediately after, he could scoop up another ball from the foul line and replicate the motion. It seems nuts, but he could do it 15 times in 30 seconds. That's 15 slams in half a minute.
9. The bank shot. Enough said.
10. Despite all of his basketball accomplishments, his mind-blowing artistry, his overcoming adversity at a young age -- and even dealing with and coming to grips with his own poor decisions that may have lasted but a couple of seconds -- Pippen-haters don't want to believe in him. They say he was not a winner without the other guy. Well, the other guy was not a winner without him either. Scottie always had to prove himself, and that mission motivated him to become not only great but one of the best players of all time. The Knickerbockers were slammed by him enough to understand. How nice for Bulls fans to know Pippen was actually obtained via an original 1987 first round Knick pick until New York traded the slot to Seattle for eventually, uh ... Mark Jackson?! ... and years later, after Pip's tenure with the Bulls was up, he was dealt for not one, not two, not three. Oh gosh. Not four. Not five. But six players to Portland. Perhaps that is the true mark of greatness. Judging worth with a simple correlation: every player we trade for you represents one championship ring.

MT, A Masterful Discovery

After Rajon Rondo's dazzling display of leadership and basketball skills -- one that produced another postseason triple-double and big-time W -- he was asked about his team's approach after a disappointing Game 1 in Los Angeles. Citing "mental toughness" midway through the interview, he sounds so sure of the psychological element that helped his team tie the series as it heads back to Boston, that there must be a secret bottle of it -- MT, we'll call it -- somewhere. Perhaps the Celtics training staff concocted it on a day off or had it shipped from Beantown where more awaits on Tuesday.

Often eluded to in pre- and post-game discussions, yet often overlooked in preparation and real-time play because of limited time, ambiguity, or indifference, it's the aspect of the game that the greats hold so dear. Whatever Rondo did to consume it or feel that way, it's best that he holds on to the process.

A few days prior, Rondo's teammate Paul Pierce even conceded his thoughts on the subject, albeit suggesting the untouchable work of his foe-to-be:

"Once you master the mental part of the game, you become a master of the game of basketball," Pierce said. "There's only been one master in basketball ever, and that's Michael Jordan, but Kobe is pretty close."

That is a strong statement. One, because it addresses what Kobe has that no other contemporary can claim. Two, because it's a former NBA Finals MVP showing his sincerity all the while aware that he is not at that level himself.

The mental aspect -- the area that separates the good from the great, and in this example, the master from all the rest -- is regarded in this arena as THE skill to master. More than the quickest and most accurate jump shot, the deadliest drop step, the smoothest crossover, the swiftest slide into a defensive stance, one who can elevate his game -- and even more, his teammates' -- with his mind has the ultimate advantage.

Was Rondo speaking for his team as a whole, or was it simply the way he felt at the time of the question? Some may think not the former, as a couple teammates didn't even turn in sub-par performances. But Rondo spoke as a leader and one who certainly believed in his priorities, tasks that aided his team down to the last second. A strip, a swat, a tip, a jumper. Masterful work stemming from his mindset to keep on clawing. He had the hot hand in more ways than just shooting. And that mentality allowed him to look like a master, at least for a couple of periods.